Snow all day and nothing to show for it.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Snow all day and nothing to show for it.
Apr 152009

It snowed all day, but the accumulation was minor. But, holy cow, it got cold by noon. It was 26F in my car at lunchtime. Tomorrow, we will see what the official precip was. Not a hefty amount, but it did snow most of the day.

There could be as much as another inch of snow tomorrow. This is only being forecasted by Accuweather, but they are pretty conservative about precip forecasts for Flagstaff.

The good news is that we should be warming up for a good while. Still, we may see another bout of winter weather by the end of the month.

Hopefully, I will get my weather station back on line by the weekend. It will be really nice to read my own graphs again. I will start posting about Lake Powell Weather after that.

Could this be winter’s last blast?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Uncategorized  Comments Off on Could this be winter’s last blast?
Apr 132009

We are going to see strong winds again around Wednesday. Also, it is going to get cold and possibly rain and snow(not much). But, can this really be the end of winter?

The long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is pointing toward warmer weather ahead. I think we will see another snow episode or two before June. We will see.

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

Little bit wetter in some models

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Little bit wetter in some models
Apr 102009

The safe bet continues to be 4-6 inches for this upcoming storm. But, some models are pointing toward longer precip times and a little more moisture. I think 4-8 inches may be the better target range. I am betting on 6-8.

At Least Half an Inch of Water

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on At Least Half an Inch of Water
Apr 092009

That might be overly optomistic, but many models and websites are lining up. Looks like it will fall mostly as snow and start overnight on Friday. The good news isn’t just this storm, but the continued chance for some precip into next week.

So, if it falls as snow, expect 4-6 inches. If it’s too windy, it might be stuck to the side of your house like last Friday.

Should know tomorrow when I will have the weather station up and running again.

Weekend continues to look wet

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Weekend continues to look wet
Apr 092009

So, we didn’t get much from Wednesday’s storm. I guess I was way off on that one. This is not a big surprise given the recent weather pattern. This weekend continues to look wet, starting Friday Night and continuing to Sunday Morning.

We will probably still get a good dose of wind with the weekend storm.  But, this one looks to collect sub-tropical moisture that could boost precipitation amounts into the 0.25-0.50 inch range. Snow levels will start fairly high at 7000-8000 feet. So, we could have a mix of rain and snow. As the storm progresses, temperatures and snow level will drop. Expect several inches of snow. Keep your fingers crossed, we need the precip.

Hopefully, I will get the weather station back online this weekend.

Every Bit Counts

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Every Bit Counts
Apr 072009

Wednesday is now looking dryer. I would guess we will only see about a tenth of an inch of water at most. The weekend is looking wetter. I think we will be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range for water. Some sutropical moisture might get entrained in the weekend storm. Temps are going to be below normal for the next week or so.

Monday Brings a Change

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Monday Brings a Change
Apr 062009

I think I have mentioned in the past that Monday and Thursday afternoons can bring changes to the forecast. Today was such a day. Yesterday the Tuesday-Wednesday storm was looking like a pure wind event. Today, Monday evening, this storm is looking like it could produce a quarter to a half inch of water. I would bet on the low side. If it’s snow, that would be 2-4 inches. Still betting on the wind.

Also, next weekend’s storm is looking wetter still.

No word on when my computer will be online.

Pattern Change

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Pattern Change
Apr 022009

Maybe it is obvious that the recent sporadically windy conditions are related to fronts moving through Northern Arizona. Although these fronts have provided little to no precipitation, the dominant high pressure has moved farther West, away from Arizona and the California Coast. Now, most models and long range forecasts seem to be pointing toward more moisture making it through to us.

Since I need to drive on the Mogollon Rim tomorrow, I am hoping this first wet wave hitting on Friday will not be too much trouble. The next storm should roll through Northern Arizona on Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks to be a bit wetter. Longer term, there is a chance for another storm or two in the follow 7-10 days. Also, temperatures are going to trend below normal. Each storm will probably continue to bring some wind, as well.

Precip to pick-up in early April

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Precip to pick-up in early April
Mar 312009

Most forecasts are trending toward a breakdown of the high pressure along the California Coast and the storm door to open up for next week. This has been the repetitive story this winter. So, we know there is a chance nothing will come of it. But, more and more forecasts are lining up for a first round on Friday evening and more the following week. Keep your fingers crossed.

On another note, here is a great summary of Surface Temperature Measurement Issues for Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast.

Hopeful for change

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Hopeful for change
Mar 302009

It is starting to look like we may have a chance for a change to a wetter pattern for a little while. This Friday appears to be the first opportunity, with 2-3 more in the next couple weeks. There isn’t any consistentcy about these storms between models or forecasts outlets. We will have to wait and see. Also, cooler than normal weather is still on tap for the near future.

But, since I will be driving along the Mogollon Rim on Friday, I can almost gaurantee snow, at least where I am driving.

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