Cool and Windy, but…

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Cool and Windy, but…
Aug 072009

This weekend should be perfect!

Today might seem a little raw with cool temperatures and high, gusty winds. Temperatures should be slightly below normal.

Winds - August 7, 2009

Winds - August 7, 2009

Fire Danger Ahead

 Climate, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Fire Danger Ahead
Aug 042009

The pattern just doesn’t appear to be changing. The middle of this week, Tuesday-Thursday, will bring a better chance for rain, but it doesn’t look like we will be seeing any thing huge.

Thursday night through the early weekend looks a little scary. While temperatures should be lower than average, there will be significant, gusty, dry southwest winds. There are several active wildfires in Arizona right now. The Wild Horse Complex, northwest of Flagstaff, continues to be managed. It’s been a while since we had much rain. Hopefully, the mid-week moisture will see us through.

The winds are being brought to us courtesy of a transiting low pressure system that would be more typical of winter. We’ll see the effect of it on the Shark Oil Barometer.

Could this be winter’s last blast?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Uncategorized  Comments Off on Could this be winter’s last blast?
Apr 132009

We are going to see strong winds again around Wednesday. Also, it is going to get cold and possibly rain and snow(not much). But, can this really be the end of winter?

The long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is pointing toward warmer weather ahead. I think we will see another snow episode or two before June. We will see.

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

At Least Half an Inch of Water

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on At Least Half an Inch of Water
Apr 092009

That might be overly optomistic, but many models and websites are lining up. Looks like it will fall mostly as snow and start overnight on Friday. The good news isn’t just this storm, but the continued chance for some precip into next week.

So, if it falls as snow, expect 4-6 inches. If it’s too windy, it might be stuck to the side of your house like last Friday.

Should know tomorrow when I will have the weather station up and running again.

Weekend continues to look wet

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Weekend continues to look wet
Apr 092009

So, we didn’t get much from Wednesday’s storm. I guess I was way off on that one. This is not a big surprise given the recent weather pattern. This weekend continues to look wet, starting Friday Night and continuing to Sunday Morning.

We will probably still get a good dose of wind with the weekend storm.  But, this one looks to collect sub-tropical moisture that could boost precipitation amounts into the 0.25-0.50 inch range. Snow levels will start fairly high at 7000-8000 feet. So, we could have a mix of rain and snow. As the storm progresses, temperatures and snow level will drop. Expect several inches of snow. Keep your fingers crossed, we need the precip.

Hopefully, I will get the weather station back online this weekend.

Monday Brings a Change

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Monday Brings a Change
Apr 062009

I think I have mentioned in the past that Monday and Thursday afternoons can bring changes to the forecast. Today was such a day. Yesterday the Tuesday-Wednesday storm was looking like a pure wind event. Today, Monday evening, this storm is looking like it could produce a quarter to a half inch of water. I would bet on the low side. If it’s snow, that would be 2-4 inches. Still betting on the wind.

Also, next weekend’s storm is looking wetter still.

No word on when my computer will be online.

Pattern Change

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Pattern Change
Apr 022009

Maybe it is obvious that the recent sporadically windy conditions are related to fronts moving through Northern Arizona. Although these fronts have provided little to no precipitation, the dominant high pressure has moved farther West, away from Arizona and the California Coast. Now, most models and long range forecasts seem to be pointing toward more moisture making it through to us.

Since I need to drive on the Mogollon Rim tomorrow, I am hoping this first wet wave hitting on Friday will not be too much trouble. The next storm should roll through Northern Arizona on Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks to be a bit wetter. Longer term, there is a chance for another storm or two in the follow 7-10 days. Also, temperatures are going to trend below normal. Each storm will probably continue to bring some wind, as well.

We get wind

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on We get wind
Mar 252009

There is still some small chance of light precip tomorrow. But, Northern Arizona is really going to just get wind. Could be as windy as it was on Sunday. We are 2 inches behind in precip for the month. Not a good sign.

Looking forward, there isn’t much showing up until very far out in early-middle April.

The storm door is open

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on The storm door is open
Dec 162008

We have about 10 inches at my house this morning at 530am. Still, I think we will end-up with 12-18 from this first storm.  I think the winds with the snow is an unusual feature for this storm.  Typically, I would expected it to drop before the snow begins.

About the same or more snow from the second.  Temps are going to be in the single digits this week.

Looking to the next two weeks, it seems the storm door may be open. See picture underneath. Above normal precipitation and below normal temps are on tap for the holidays.

Looks like the Arizona Snowbowl is going to hurry to open as fast as they can.

8-14 day outlook

8-14 day outlook

Update to the onslaught

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Update to the onslaught
Dec 142008

Last night brought about 3 inches at my house.  The Navy Nogaps model nailed it again.  Highest wind gust was more impressive at 42mph. Temperatures are going to dip throughout the rest of the storm.

Looks like it will start-up again in earnest Monday Afternoon. I am still thinking between Monday afternoon and Tuesday night we will see 12-18 inches of snow.

Wednesday evening through Thursday evening is looking similar right now.

Later there is the chance to see more precip a couple days before Christmas.  Both from forecasts and because of the previously mentioned wedding.

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