Monsoon to Start This Week?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Monsoon to Start This Week?
Jun 222009

Dewpoints have remained fairly high all month. We broached 50F for the dewpoint on Saturday. The average dewpoint (from Tucson NWS Tracking site) for the day was in the low 40’s. The moisture is trying to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico and is saturating Northern Mexico. It hasn’t quite made it to Arizona in full force, yet. One of the components of the monsoon is the formation of a thermal low pressure system. We are probably missing some heat to cause the lifting of the are to form the low pressure system.

Dones’t it have to get hot before the monsoon starts?

Dry May, But What About Sea Ice?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Dry May, But What About Sea Ice?
May 032009

May is here. It is one of the dryer months for Northerm Arizona. This May isn’t looking much different. It should be dry and nice for the most part. I don’t see any big drivers for warmer than normal temps.

But, what about sea ice. If you remember a couple years back, there were great expectations of the North Pole being ice-free. Well, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards for now. Here are a couple charts that tell a diffferent story. Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice did recede drastically a few years back. But, it is currently the highest coverage since 2002 at the start of May.

Northern Sea Ice Coverage 5-1-09

Northern Sea Ice Coverage 5-1-09

However, the departure from average for 1979 until now is still negative, but moving in a growth direction:

Northern Sea Ice compared to average 79-09

Northern Sea Ice compared to average 79-09

One more consideration is the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice, where it is above average and growing:

Southern Sea Ice 5-1-09

Southern Sea Ice 5-1-09

Finally, overall, Global Sea Ice coverage is above average: Granted, recent levels have been below average:

Global Sea Ice 5-1-09

Global Sea Ice 5-1-09

So, shouldn’t the mainstream media give us a general update? If this trend continues, it might snow in London, or Lousiana, or, maybe just maybe we will see two back to back seasons where we can skate on Lake Mary, south of Flagstaff. Oh wait those things already happened.

Believe it or not

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Believe it or not
Apr 222009

There is suddenly a slight chance of rain this afternoon. I bet we don’t get more than sprinkle, if that. But, we are going to see temperatures coll over the next few days to a normal or slightly below normal level.

There is an chance of some moisture showing up early next week. Again, I doubt it will be much as our dry trend will probably continue until the Monsoon Season. Sorry folks.

Precip to pick-up in early April

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Precip to pick-up in early April
Mar 312009

Most forecasts are trending toward a breakdown of the high pressure along the California Coast and the storm door to open up for next week. This has been the repetitive story this winter. So, we know there is a chance nothing will come of it. But, more and more forecasts are lining up for a first round on Friday evening and more the following week. Keep your fingers crossed.

On another note, here is a great summary of Surface Temperature Measurement Issues for Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast.

Spring Outlook – Rain and Snow for Sunday Night

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Spring Outlook – Rain and Snow for Sunday Night
Mar 202009

It won’t be a lot of water, maybe a centimeter at best, but it looks to arrive on Sunday. Snow levels should be high starting out.

I think it’s safe to say I blew the winter forecast this year. Overall, I think it’s been warm and dry. NOAA just issued their spring forecast. They are looking for continued warmth with equal chances of dry versus wet. But, they aren’t forecasting “drought” conditions. Personally, I am baffled. Warmer than average future, entering a dry season (spring is our dryest season), after a less than average wet winter…doesn’t that equal drought?

Finally, something to post

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Finally, something to post
Mar 182009

It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.

The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold.  From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather

Still, Just Small Stuff on the Way

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Still, Just Small Stuff on the Way
Mar 112009

We are going to continue to see mostly warm and pleasant conditions around Flagstaff. A small amount of precipitation is forecasted on Thursday and Friday. It just doesn’t look like much and will probably fall as rain in Flag. Spring break week should be mostly beautiful after a small chance of rain early on.

On another topic, the sun continues to be dim and inactive. Here are a couple links that discuss what is going on. We are witnessing history.

Intellicast’s Joe D’Aleo has an over all summary: Sun Continues to Hibernate

This link covers the details around the multiple cycles that influence the sun: Clilverd – Solar Cycle 24

This link shows the agricultural effects as a result of the above: Solar Cycle 24 – Agricultural Effects

Could today be a record high temp?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer  Comments Off on Could today be a record high temp?
Feb 232009

It’s about 40 degrees this morning. The clouds overnight have been acting like a big blanket. The record for this date is 66 degrees. A 26 degree temperature change could happen, if the sky is clear and there is no frontal activity. It will be close at least.

The forecast is for 61 degrees.

We should continue to see off and on clouds and mild temps for the next week or so. March looks to bring a change to that.

About Time…

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on About Time…
Oct 272008

October has been too cold for my tastes. Kept waiting for a good weekend to go spend at the lake. Finally gave up and winterized the boat. If only I had waited!!! This weekend was beautiful. High pressure should stick around for this week, keeping it warm and dry. Light winds, too. The jet stream seems to be locked into the current pattern for the long run.

Here is how beautiful Sunday was:

Statement as of 6:25 PM MST on October 26, 2008
… Record high low temperatures for northern Arizona on Oct 26 2008…

City (period of record) new high low previous record/year
Navajo nm (1939 – 2008) 49 48 in 1988 (record high low’s are an indicator of global warming)

… Record high temperatures for northern Arizona on Oct 26 2008…

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
Cottonwood-tuzigoot (1911 – 2008) 93 89 in 2001
Navajo nm (1939 – 2008) 70 70 (tied) in 2007
Payson (1948 – 2008) 86 84 in 1999
Prescott (1898 – 2008) 83 83 (tied) in 1934
Sedona (1943 – 2008) 89 87 in 2001
Williams (1897 – 2008) 78 78 (tied) in 1933

These records are preliminary pending official reports.

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