“Sun Oddly Quiet”

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May 052009
 

Here is a good laymen’s article from the National Geographic: “Sun Oddly Quiet — Hints at Next Little Ice Age.”

My personal opinion is that National Geographic has been too fast to jump on the Human Caused Global Warming. Here is an article from NG in 2006: “Don’t Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says.”

I think the bottom line is that we simply don’t know enough about how the Sun effects the Earth. Solar output is low right now, and has been for a couple years. But, when you consider the full spectrum radiation and the associate effects, we just don’t know enough to predict climate. Solar output during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum’s were probably similar to what we are seeing today.

Oh yeah, sunny, warm and occassionally breezy for Northern Arizona. It’s May.

Apr 302009
 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) is a cousin of El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO). It operates on a much longer, decadal, time scale. The temperatures of the Northern Pacific Ocean can be a big effect on Arizona’s Precipitation. It has been negative, or cool, for several years. Recently, it has moved more severely in that direction. Here is a recent article about it: The PDO’s influence on Climate Change: How low will it go? I think there is still a valuable question about how the sun’s current low output and activity will effect our precipitation in Northern Arizona. Could the combination of a cooling climate offset the cool phase PDO?

Well, for this weekend, it looks like we could get a little precip on Saturday and Sunday. Small amounts with a slight cooling trend.

Mar 182009
 

It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.

The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold.  From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather

Mar 112009
 

We are going to continue to see mostly warm and pleasant conditions around Flagstaff. A small amount of precipitation is forecasted on Thursday and Friday. It just doesn’t look like much and will probably fall as rain in Flag. Spring break week should be mostly beautiful after a small chance of rain early on.

On another topic, the sun continues to be dim and inactive. Here are a couple links that discuss what is going on. We are witnessing history.

Intellicast’s Joe D’Aleo has an over all summary: Sun Continues to Hibernate

This link covers the details around the multiple cycles that influence the sun: Clilverd – Solar Cycle 24

This link shows the agricultural effects as a result of the above: Solar Cycle 24 – Agricultural Effects

Mar 052009
 

Nothing seems to be converging. Any chance for signifcant precip keeps floating out farther into the future. Just some wind and cooler temps seem to be on tap.

But, in the meantime, here is a new article on solar influence: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Willie_Soon-Its_the_Sun_Stupid.pdf.  Enjoy!

Jan 012009
 

Here is a great link about the current solar minimum and some of the potential effects of the sun on climate. In 2008, the sun produced it’s second lowest number of sunspots in a given year since 1900.

Bundle up! We could be in for a very long cold spell.

Here is a link to much more in-depth information about Solar Cycle history. Set aside some time to read this one.

One more link with more info on the link to climate: Solar Cycle and Climate

Sep 302008
 

Well, here goes.  Solar activity remains low.  Sunspot activity, solar output and the solar wind have all dropped to 50-100 year lows.  All would indicate an over all cooling trend for the planet.  Personally, I thought this drove our weather last winter.

The Pacfic Coast water temps are below normal.  This bodes ill for precipitation.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has intensely swung to cold.  Another bad sign for precip.  A weak El Nino may build into the spring.

So, for the next 3-6 months, I would expect colder than normal temperatures, and drier than average precipitation levels.  Notice the “than average” part.  I don’t mean outside normal bounds necessarily.  Just less than average.  Check this post in my forums for an example (http://stu-in-flag.net/forum/index.php?topic=3.msg4#new).  The temperatures will probably be like last winter….brrrr!

This forecast does coincide with the Farmer’s Almanac (http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/13).  Section 13 cooresponds to Flagstaff and most of Northern Arizona.

However, if you are a skier, I would recommend buying a season pass.  They will probably find a way to open for a fair amount of time.

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