Apr 152009
 

It snowed all day, but the accumulation was minor. But, holy cow, it got cold by noon. It was 26F in my car at lunchtime. Tomorrow, we will see what the official precip was. Not a hefty amount, but it did snow most of the day.

There could be as much as another inch of snow tomorrow. This is only being forecasted by Accuweather, but they are pretty conservative about precip forecasts for Flagstaff.

The good news is that we should be warming up for a good while. Still, we may see another bout of winter weather by the end of the month.

Hopefully, I will get my weather station back on line by the weekend. It will be really nice to read my own graphs again. I will start posting about Lake Powell Weather after that.

Apr 132009
 

We are going to see strong winds again around Wednesday. Also, it is going to get cold and possibly rain and snow(not much). But, can this really be the end of winter?

The long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is pointing toward warmer weather ahead. I think we will see another snow episode or two before June. We will see.

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

8-14 Day Outlook April 13, 2009

Apr 122009
 

I blew it yesterday. We didn’t even make a quarter of an inch of water. But, everyone pretty much blew it. 4-8 inches of snow was the consensus for yesterday. The official report was 4 inches of snow, 0.21 inches of water. Oh well. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise. The whole winter season has been below normal for precip and slightly above normal on temperatures.

Way down below at the end of this post (it’s a long post) are some charts for the nation. One of the things you don’t see on this chart is that Hawaii has been quite cold. They logged their coldest March ever. Parts of the Northwest were 5-6 degrees below normal.

Arizona had its 11th warmest and 12th driest march on record. This is in contrast to the whole country being fairly mixed or more moderate. When taken as a whole, of the 115 March records, it was the 65th coolest and the 74th wettest. Both in the middle of the spectrum. For Arizona, this will hopefully change as La Nina weakens. Here is the summary for Flagstaff, warm and dry:

AVERAGE MAXIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 54.2 (NORMAL 50.3)
AVERAGE MINIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 23.7 (NORMAL 22.8)
MONTHLY MEAN................................. 39.0 (NORMAL 36.6)
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...................................... +2.4
HIGHEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH................. 41.8 IN 1989
LOWEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH.................. 26.8 IN 1973
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH....................... 67 ON  1ST
LOWEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH........................ 12 ON 31ST
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH....... 73 ON 26TH IN 1988*
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH........ -16 ON  4TH IN 1966
DAYS MAX TEMP 32 OR BELOW......................... 0 (NORMAL  4)
DAYS MAX TEMP 90 OR HIGHER........................ 0 (NORMAL  0)
DAYS MIN TEMP 32 OR BELOW........................ 29 (NORMAL 30)
DAYS MIN TEMP 0 OR BELOW.......................... 0 (NORMAL  2) *
ALSO OCCURRED ON OTHER DATES

            HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS DATA

HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH............. 800 (NORMAL  880)
HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON........... 5203 (NORMAL 5711)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH.............. 00 (NORMAL    0)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON............. 00 (NORMAL    0)

                      PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH................................. 0.22 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................................ 2.62 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................ -2.30 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE YEAR ................................. 2.43 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................................. 7.36 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................. -4.93 INCHES
GREATEST IN 24 HOURS............................... 0.17 ON 12TH
GREATEST FOR THE MONTH...................... 6.75 INCHES IN 1970
LEAST FOR THE MONTH.........................TRACE INCHES IN 1972
DAYS WITH 0.01 INCH OR MORE....................... 3  (NORMAL 9)
DAYS WITH 0.10 INCH OR MORE....................... 1  (NORMAL 6)
DAYS WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 2)
DAYS WITH 1.00 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 0)

                          SNOW DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH.................................. 0.3 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH...............................  23.9 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE SEASON...............................  81.0 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON..............................  96.4 INCHES
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH.................. 79.4 INCHES 1991
MOST DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH............ 0.3 INCHES ON 12TH

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

Apr 092009
 

That might be overly optomistic, but many models and websites are lining up. Looks like it will fall mostly as snow and start overnight on Friday. The good news isn’t just this storm, but the continued chance for some precip into next week.

So, if it falls as snow, expect 4-6 inches. If it’s too windy, it might be stuck to the side of your house like last Friday.

Should know tomorrow when I will have the weather station up and running again.

Apr 092009
 

So, we didn’t get much from Wednesday’s storm. I guess I was way off on that one. This is not a big surprise given the recent weather pattern. This weekend continues to look wet, starting Friday Night and continuing to Sunday Morning.

We will probably still get a good dose of wind with the weekend storm.  But, this one looks to collect sub-tropical moisture that could boost precipitation amounts into the 0.25-0.50 inch range. Snow levels will start fairly high at 7000-8000 feet. So, we could have a mix of rain and snow. As the storm progresses, temperatures and snow level will drop. Expect several inches of snow. Keep your fingers crossed, we need the precip.

Hopefully, I will get the weather station back online this weekend.

Apr 072009
 

Wednesday is now looking dryer. I would guess we will only see about a tenth of an inch of water at most. The weekend is looking wetter. I think we will be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range for water. Some sutropical moisture might get entrained in the weekend storm. Temps are going to be below normal for the next week or so.

Apr 062009
 

I think I have mentioned in the past that Monday and Thursday afternoons can bring changes to the forecast. Today was such a day. Yesterday the Tuesday-Wednesday storm was looking like a pure wind event. Today, Monday evening, this storm is looking like it could produce a quarter to a half inch of water. I would bet on the low side. If it’s snow, that would be 2-4 inches. Still betting on the wind.

Also, next weekend’s storm is looking wetter still.

No word on when my computer will be online.

Apr 022009
 

Maybe it is obvious that the recent sporadically windy conditions are related to fronts moving through Northern Arizona. Although these fronts have provided little to no precipitation, the dominant high pressure has moved farther West, away from Arizona and the California Coast. Now, most models and long range forecasts seem to be pointing toward more moisture making it through to us.

Since I need to drive on the Mogollon Rim tomorrow, I am hoping this first wet wave hitting on Friday will not be too much trouble. The next storm should roll through Northern Arizona on Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks to be a bit wetter. Longer term, there is a chance for another storm or two in the follow 7-10 days. Also, temperatures are going to trend below normal. Each storm will probably continue to bring some wind, as well.

Mar 312009
 

Most forecasts are trending toward a breakdown of the high pressure along the California Coast and the storm door to open up for next week. This has been the repetitive story this winter. So, we know there is a chance nothing will come of it. But, more and more forecasts are lining up for a first round on Friday evening and more the following week. Keep your fingers crossed.

On another note, here is a great summary of Surface Temperature Measurement Issues for Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast.

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