Jul 112009
 

Not a particularly wet July, so far. The shark oil barometer has been crystal clear for quite sometime. It looks like today could bring some rain, but we will taper back to dry conditions, again.

Dewpoints across parts the region have fallen and remained low over the last week or so. Check out the dewpoints for Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Yuma and Flagstaff.  Flagstaff is still near average, where the others have dropped significantly. For the month, with the rains before the 4th of July, we are still right about average for precipitation. That may not apply everywhere in the area due to the large variations possible in the monsoon season.

Flagstaff Dewpoint Tracker

Flagstaff Dewpoint Tracker

Mar 022009
 

The South and East would argue that it is the lion’s start to March. For us, at least til Friday, it may feel like the lamb. Here are yesterday’s records:

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
Flagstaff (1899 - 2009) 67 66 in 1921
Fort Valley (1909 - 2009) 64 64 (tied) in 1986
Greer (1917 - 2009) 71 60 in 2008
Petrified Forest (1931 - 2009) 73 72 in 2008
Springerville (1912 - 2009) 70 69 in 2008
Williams (1898 - 2009) 70 68 in 1910

Temperatures are going to be near record again today. Then, we are in for a change. Clouds and cooler temps are on the menu for the rest of the week. Seems like everyone and every model is seeing something in the Friday-Sunday time frame. The Nogaps model is showing a sizeable storm, but this model has missed this far out this season. The GFS model is showing something smaller on Friday. Other forecasts are mixed in between. A couple more storms are on the way beyond next weekend.

The Shark Oil Barometer has been mostly clear, until yesterday afternoon. Now, it is clouding up again.

Feb 282009
 

The shark oil barometer has been mostly clear for quite a while. March will be interesting.

Tomorrow (Sunday, March 1) may bring record high temperatures to Northern Arizona. This will be a brief but enjoyable event. Perhaps windy.

Next week, temperatures should start to head back to normal or below. Then, we should see the storm door open. Right now, it appears we will have 2-3 weak to moderate strength storms by the middle of the month. It does not look like we will see record breaking snows like we have earlier this season.

I’ll try to run a temperature analysis for february tomorrow.

Feb 142009
 

And the predicted intensity of the next storm continues to drop. Looks like the next storm is going to be delayed over California and loose much of it’s moisture there.  Long range, it still looks like storms are going to roll through, the next one just isn’t going to meet previous expectations for snow amounts. It will be below normal for temps the next few days.

Here is the noon-time Shark Oil Barometer pic:

Clear Shark OIl Barometer

Clear Shark OIl Barometer

Here is a movie of the barometer clearing after last nights storm.

2-14-09

Feb 092009
 

The current storm should be mostly gone some time tomorrow. Off and on light stuff may linger for a while. Thursday’s wave looks like it will be weak, fast and to the north.

The weekend is a different story. Here is the GFS model from the Navy site. It shows 35-50mm of water falling in Northern Arizona, probably as snow, on Sunday afternoon. That’s 18-24 inches of snow by my estimate. So, as you shovel this week, you may want to consider where the next dumping will go. I know I still didn’t have much room in a couple spots. Some is still left over since December. There are more storms expected out to 10-14 days. Where will we put all the snow?

Sunday Night - February 15, 2009

Sunday Night - February 15, 2009

FYI: I have changed the exact location of the Shark Oil Barometer picture. It is best viewed at the bottom of this page. It’s still very cloudy!

Feb 092009
 

Yesterday’s storm yielded 0.68 inches of water.  Unfortunately, they provided the MM (measurement missing) code for the snowfall amount. I think we had 8-10 inches at my house by last night. It is a south facing slope. Arizona Snowbowl reported 11-16 inches from the storm.

10-18 inches in on tap for the next 24 hours. A little bit more may fall around Thursday, but I doubt it. Next weekend is almost certainly a mess. The storm door is open, possibly for the next 10-14 days. Get out the roof rake.

The Shark Oil Barometer is fully clouded.

Feb 082009
 

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning that is effective through Tuesday. I think we had about 6 inches of heavy wet snow at my place this morning. Maybe a couple through the day today. Seemed pretty heavy. Wonder what the moisture content will be.

From the National Weather Service (winter storm warning)

A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.

The whole warning is here.

Feb 062009
 

Here we go. I think we will get 8-12 inches of snow by Sunday night. The first wave tonight is going to be lean. The next wave, Saturday-Sunday, will be wetter. The Monday-Tuesday wave is looking like 12+ inches at this time. This wave will be quite windy, too. Temps are going to drop for this period. Brrr!

The Shark Oil Barometer is mostly cloudy this morning. It’s been building for a few days.

The storm door is open an will probably remain open for the next 10-14 days. Maybe the whole month. Here is a link that explains, in great and grave detail, how things are shaping up on a national level. Extremes of Cold and Snow

Feb 032009
 
Shark Oil Barometer Webcam

Shark Oil Barometer Webcam

The webcam is occassionally working. Still some bugs in the acquisition and file transfer. You can see it here, for now: http://www.stu-in-flag.net/weather/SOB.png I’ll do more with it later.

Everyone is aligning around stormy weather ahead. The NOGAPS NGS model is showing about 8 inches of snow, the NOGAPS GFS model is showing a later start time and much heavier accumulations. Say good bye to the warm weather in any case. Here comes the deep freeze.

Jan 232009
 
Shark Oil Barometer (1-23-09 Light Rain)

Shark Oil Barometer (1-23-09 Light Rain)

Here is today’s image from the S.O.B. (Shark Oil Barometer) As a update note, the forecasts and models for next week are all over the place. I am still betting on some part of the week being very wet or very snowy.

The current storm has produced about a quarter of an inch of rain.

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