Aug 082009
 

Looks like several areas might turn in record lows for this date. The Flagstaff record low for this date is 39F. This morning the airport is reporting 36F, and still dropping. Bellemont is showing 24F. Here are some other numbers

Location Record Low(F) Today’s Low(F)
Grand Canyon 40 30
Page 63 59
Prescott 48 48
Flagstaff 39 36

These temperatures are still dropping at 6am. It’s 39F at my station. Today and tonight will be much below normal for most of Northern Arizona.

For the week ahead, the monsoonal high should return and adopt a favorable position for providing moisture flow and seasonable temperatures for the Flagstaff Area.

For the first time since probably June, the Shark Oil Barometer is cloudy this morning.

Shark Oil Barometer Morning -  8-8-9

Shark Oil Barometer Morning - 8-8-9

Jun 032009
 

There are three(3) things below that bear reading. First is the NWS May summary for Flagstaff. It was quite warm…until the end. In the end we had record breaking rain and cold.   Quite an interesting month… a quandry!

Below are temperature graphs for the month. They are self-explanatory.

It appears the trend will continue into June. Maybe not as wet, but probably more clouds than usual. Phantom Ranch had a record low temperature, yesterday.

NOUS45 KFGZ 011742
PNSFGZ

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1042 AM MST MON JUN 1 2009

…A MAY THAT STARTED AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD ALSO
TURNED INTO ONE OF THE WETTEST…

THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF MAY SET A PACE FOR THE MONTH TO BE ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 56.8 DEGREES. A
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE THEN MOVED OVER THE AREA AND THE RECORD
SETTING PACE WAS SLOWED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STARTING ON THE
18TH…THE FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT RECORDED PRECIPITATION ON 12 OF THE 15
REMAINING DAYS OF THE MONTH. AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN FELL AT THE
FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT FROM THE 20TH THROUGH 30TH. THIS 11 DAY RUN RANKS
2ND IN MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MONTH OF
MAY…AND 40TH FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION OVERALL.
THE RESULT WAS AN UNUSUALLY WET MAY…WITH 2.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION BEING RECORDED. MAY 2009 ENDED AS THE 5TH WETTEST ON
RECORD…1.28 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL 0.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FLAGSTAFF NORMALLY RECEIVES IN MAY.

THE ABNORMAL PRECIPITATION STILL WAS NOT THE ONLY STORY OF
MONTH…ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO WORKED THEIR WAY INTO THE
MIX. MAY 2009 WAS THE FIRST MAY EVER…TO NOT RECORD A LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. THE MONTH ENDED AS THE 2ND
WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WITH A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 56.0
DEGREES. BREAKING THAT DOWN INTO THE HIGHS AND LOWS…THE AVERAGE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 39.6 DEGREES…THE WARMEST AVERAGE MAY
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED. THE AVERAGE MAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE CAME IN AS THE 8TH WARMEST MAY MAXIMUM WITH A VALUE OF
72.3 DEGREES.

CLARK

May Temperatures

May Temperatures

may-2009-ave-temp

May 312009
 

It has been a wet month and the San Fancisco Peaks are white once again (Downtown Webcam can get you a picture). I recorded 0.66 inches of precipitation for a monthly total of 1.99 inches. This includes the snow-like hail that fell. The National Weather Service at the airport reported only 0.36 inches leaving them just short of the 0.46 inch record. This brought them to 2.08 inches for the month which is 1.29 inches, or more than double the normal for the month. The record for May is 4.14 inches. We’ll see what today brings, but we probably won’t be seeing a record month.

The last week’s precip looks like this from radar estimation(from Intellicast):

Radar estimation of precipitation, 5-24-09 to 5-31-09

Radar estimation of precipitation, 5-24-09 to 5-31-09

It should dry out from here forward. There is a chance again today, but not as significant as yesterday. It continues to decline through this week. We should be warming slightly as well.  It should be a great week for getting the scooter back out on the road. There is a chance for more rain around the middle of June.

May 252009
 

While I was lounging around under 90 feet of water, Flagstaff was enjoying a day of record rainfall. Let’s face it folks, it seems very rare that we have a dry Memorial Day Weekend.

Last Friday, May 22, 2009, was a record rain day for many locations.

Flagstaff          0.78" (record)
Winslow            0.46" (record)
Page               1.83"
Grand Canyon       0.95"

Page and the Grand Canyon aren’t tracked by the National Weather Service (NWS) for records. A personal weather station(KAZPAGE1) in Page, AZ recorded 3.16 inches, with a rain fall rate over 1.5 inches per hour. In Sedona, a personal weather station(KAZSEDON3) recorded over half an inch of rain on both Friday and Saturday.

The cool wet weather should be a nice break for the forests. Hopefully, the moisture will help keep the fire season to a minimum.

This week, I am going to start adding some monsoon tracking info, some new tools from the NWS and a look at the upcoming hurricane season.

Radar Estimate of Precipitation for last 7 days

Radar Estimate of Precipitation for last 7 days

May 062009
 

Wow, I was reading this on Monday: Thoughts on Summer

And now the National Weather Service says:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. SPRINGTIME BREEZES ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

So, we will see, but I think this summer could be quite mild and a little cooler than normal. Still not certain about precip for the summer.

Apr 172009
 

Below is the record report from the National Weather Service for our Record Low Temperature at the airport. For comparison and a little validation, I recorded 15.1 degrees F this morning at my house.  It was chilly. With a record low of 15F, the average temperature for the day was 10 degrees below normal. For teh Month to date, we are 2.1 degrees below normal.

Better times are ahead.  Temps should move into the 60′s and 70′s for the next few days.

Statement as of 05:54 PM MST on April 17, 2009
… Record low temperature set at Flagstaff AZ Airport…
a record low temperature of 15 degrees was set at Flagstaff AZ Airport today.
This breaks the old record of 16 set in 1924.
Mar 182009
 

It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.

The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold.  From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather

Mar 032009
 

More record temps yesterday, boy was it nice! But, bid it farewell. Cooler weather is on the way.

... Record high temperatures for northern Arizona on Mar 02 2009... 

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
alpine (1912 - 2009) 71 67 in 1921
Cottonwood-tuzigoot (1912 - 2009) 80 80 (tied) in 1999
Flagstaff (1899 - 2009) 66 65 in 1910
Grand Canyon np N rim (1926 - 2009) 56 55 in 1986
Heber rs (1951 - 2009) 73 68 in 1967
Navajo nm (1939 - 2009) 65 60 in 1986
Sedona (1944 - 2009) 78 78 (tied) in 1999
Springerville (1912 - 2009) 75 67 in 1967
Winslow (1899 - 2009) 79 77 in 1967

This weekend’s storm keeps bouncing around. We will get something, but how much and when are still up in the air. No single website or model seems to show the same thing from on day to the next.

NOONTIME UPDATE – GFS model shows no precip until next Tuesday. NOGAPS model shows good storm on Saturday. wait and see.

Mar 022009
 

The South and East would argue that it is the lion’s start to March. For us, at least til Friday, it may feel like the lamb. Here are yesterday’s records:

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
Flagstaff (1899 - 2009) 67 66 in 1921
Fort Valley (1909 - 2009) 64 64 (tied) in 1986
Greer (1917 - 2009) 71 60 in 2008
Petrified Forest (1931 - 2009) 73 72 in 2008
Springerville (1912 - 2009) 70 69 in 2008
Williams (1898 - 2009) 70 68 in 1910

Temperatures are going to be near record again today. Then, we are in for a change. Clouds and cooler temps are on the menu for the rest of the week. Seems like everyone and every model is seeing something in the Friday-Sunday time frame. The Nogaps model is showing a sizeable storm, but this model has missed this far out this season. The GFS model is showing something smaller on Friday. Other forecasts are mixed in between. A couple more storms are on the way beyond next weekend.

The Shark Oil Barometer has been mostly clear, until yesterday afternoon. Now, it is clouding up again.

Feb 232009
 

It’s about 40 degrees this morning. The clouds overnight have been acting like a big blanket. The record for this date is 66 degrees. A 26 degree temperature change could happen, if the sky is clear and there is no frontal activity. It will be close at least.

The forecast is for 61 degrees.

We should continue to see off and on clouds and mild temps for the next week or so. March looks to bring a change to that.

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