Apr 302009
 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) is a cousin of El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO). It operates on a much longer, decadal, time scale. The temperatures of the Northern Pacific Ocean can be a big effect on Arizona’s Precipitation. It has been negative, or cool, for several years. Recently, it has moved more severely in that direction. Here is a recent article about it: The PDO’s influence on Climate Change: How low will it go? I think there is still a valuable question about how the sun’s current low output and activity will effect our precipitation in Northern Arizona. Could the combination of a cooling climate offset the cool phase PDO?

Well, for this weekend, it looks like we could get a little precip on Saturday and Sunday. Small amounts with a slight cooling trend.

Jan 112009
 

Here are two summaries.

First, here is a link to a summary of 2008 Global Tropical Cyclone Season by Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is often cited for support of global warming. But, it that is the case shouldn’t the cyclone number and strength be increasing everywhere? Another point of contention is how long have we been accurately recording tropical cyclone activity. Since the Caribbean Sea has been continuously sailed for several hundred years, some think we have accurate records there. In reality, many hurricanes could go completely undetected until satellites and aerial surveillance were available. Personally, I believe we only have a few decades of good information about North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. For more information, here are the hurricane reviews(2008) and fore cast(2009) by Dr. Bill Gray’s group at Colorado State

Sep 292008
 

The water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are a big factor in determining our weather, particularly our precipitation.  Warm water near us means more moisture for precipitation.  After this website (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml) is updated today, I will make my first winter prediction.

I can already tell you, I will not be buying a season pass at Arizona Snowbowl.  I just can’t ski enough times to make it worthwhile.

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