Aug 082009
 

Looks like several areas might turn in record lows for this date. The Flagstaff record low for this date is 39F. This morning the airport is reporting 36F, and still dropping. Bellemont is showing 24F. Here are some other numbers

Location Record Low(F) Today’s Low(F)
Grand Canyon 40 30
Page 63 59
Prescott 48 48
Flagstaff 39 36

These temperatures are still dropping at 6am. It’s 39F at my station. Today and tonight will be much below normal for most of Northern Arizona.

For the week ahead, the monsoonal high should return and adopt a favorable position for providing moisture flow and seasonable temperatures for the Flagstaff Area.

For the first time since probably June, the Shark Oil Barometer is cloudy this morning.

Shark Oil Barometer Morning -  8-8-9

Shark Oil Barometer Morning - 8-8-9

Jul 112009
 

Not a particularly wet July, so far. The shark oil barometer has been crystal clear for quite sometime. It looks like today could bring some rain, but we will taper back to dry conditions, again.

Dewpoints across parts the region have fallen and remained low over the last week or so. Check out the dewpoints for Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Yuma and Flagstaff.  Flagstaff is still near average, where the others have dropped significantly. For the month, with the rains before the 4th of July, we are still right about average for precipitation. That may not apply everywhere in the area due to the large variations possible in the monsoon season.

Flagstaff Dewpoint Tracker

Flagstaff Dewpoint Tracker

Jun 242009
 

Looks like Flagstaff will be on the moisture edge for the next few days. There is very  dry air to the west, very wet air to the east. Some days it may cause storms in Flag. Most storms will be to the east and southeast. It does appear the thermal low is starting to build over Baja and Southwestern Arizona.

BUT!!! Check out this new graphical forecast page from the National Weather Service: Graphical Forecast for Flagstaff

Jun 222009
 

As we await the start of the monsoon, the water temperatures around us seem to be important. The Pacific is apparently undergoing a signficant shift to an El Nino. Here is the animation of the global sea surface temperatures and anomaly. This could supply plenty of moisture if the monsoon gets started and draws from here. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are near normal temperatures. Not as strong a moisture source. Also, the cooler water temps in the Gulf and Caribbean, and the El Nino should hinder hurricane season in the east.

As we wait, perhaps this article on the North American Monsoon is helpful

Jun 222009
 

Dewpoints have remained fairly high all month. We broached 50F for the dewpoint on Saturday. The average dewpoint (from Tucson NWS Tracking site) for the day was in the low 40’s. The moisture is trying to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico and is saturating Northern Mexico. It hasn’t quite made it to Arizona in full force, yet. One of the components of the monsoon is the formation of a thermal low pressure system. We are probably missing some heat to cause the lifting of the are to form the low pressure system.

Dones’t it have to get hot before the monsoon starts?

Jun 152009
 

Does this June seem cooler than last? Seems cloudier to me. Here is a comparison of the month so far:

Comparison of June 2008 to June 2009 Temperatures

Comparison of June 2008 to June 2009 Temperatures

The average temperature is the average for the given day, not the climatological normal. The low and average tempertures seem a little lower this year, compared to last year. But, the big difference is in the high temperatures. Seems like there has been more cloud cover with the cooler highs.

It looks like we will be heading for “normal” temperatures later this week and through the weekend.

Jun 072009
 

Well, after May being mostly much warmer than normal, June is following the same trend as the end of May. This week’s normal high temperature is 77-78F, but we will be lucky to see temperatures above the mid-60’s. Forecasts and models for Tuesday are calling for precipitation, most likely scattered thunderstorms.  Here is a graph of June weather to date from Wunderground:

Weather to date, 6-7-09

Weather to date, 6-7-09

Jun 052009
 

There is a great link for water level at Lake Powell. It’s pretty entertaining to watch the water level raise, especially in the spring. Recently, it has risen as much as a foot in a single day. Makes planning a weekend camping trip a challenge. Here is a historic look.  For this time of year, the lake is the deepest it’s been since 2002. In 2002, the water level did not really change during this time of year. This weekend will bring cool temps, clouds and wind.

Lake Powell Water Level History

Lake Powell Water Level History

Jun 042009
 

Well, most of the forecasts are showing slight chances for isolated thunderstorms for the next few days. Go figure. It doesn’t match the computer models that I typically watch.  I think the dewpoint is higher than we might normally expect to see in June. If more moisture and a low pressure system come through, we could see some rain. We should see wind.

Yesterday was an average day, temperature wise. It wil probably be cooler than that thhrough the weekend.

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