Winter Forecast – round 1

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Winter Forecast – round 1
Sep 302008
 

Well, here goes.  Solar activity remains low.  Sunspot activity, solar output and the solar wind have all dropped to 50-100 year lows.  All would indicate an over all cooling trend for the planet.  Personally, I thought this drove our weather last winter.

The Pacfic Coast water temps are below normal.  This bodes ill for precipitation.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has intensely swung to cold.  Another bad sign for precip.  A weak El Nino may build into the spring.

So, for the next 3-6 months, I would expect colder than normal temperatures, and drier than average precipitation levels.  Notice the “than average” part.  I don’t mean outside normal bounds necessarily.  Just less than average.  Check this post in my forums for an example (http://stu-in-flag.net/forum/index.php?topic=3.msg4#new).  The temperatures will probably be like last winter….brrrr!

This forecast does coincide with the Farmer’s Almanac (http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/13).  Section 13 cooresponds to Flagstaff and most of Northern Arizona.

However, if you are a skier, I would recommend buying a season pass.  They will probably find a way to open for a fair amount of time.

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