Goofy Data from National Weather Service

 Climate, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Goofy Data from National Weather Service
Aug 062009
 

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see that July was drier than usual, and given the lack of daily cooling from thunderstorm formation and rain, the temperatures were higher than usual. But, check out this summary from the National Weather Service: …MONTH IN REVIEW FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2009…

The average temperatures for the month are higher for the stations shown in Arizona. But, look at the difference between Sedona, Flagstaff and Winslow, compared to Bellemont. The first 3 stations all report roughly 2 degrees above normal in all catagories.  Bellemont show 0.7 degress above normal for the highs, -0.4 degrees for the low and a meager +0.1 degrees for the daily average. Did someone install a big air conditioner in Bellemont? Looks like Bellemont had similar rainfall compared to the other stations. What could be causing this large difference?

Another interesting note is the rainfall recorded at a few stations that put them above average. Just goes to show how variable the Monsoon season can be. One storm can make all the difference for one location.

Shifting gears, windy, cool and dry conditions are on tap for today. Hold on to your hat. The monsoon continues to struggle.

On the Edge

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on On the Edge
Jun 242009
 

Looks like Flagstaff will be on the moisture edge for the next few days. There is very  dry air to the west, very wet air to the east. Some days it may cause storms in Flag. Most storms will be to the east and southeast. It does appear the thermal low is starting to build over Baja and Southwestern Arizona.

BUT!!! Check out this new graphical forecast page from the National Weather Service: Graphical Forecast for Flagstaff

May

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on May
Jun 032009
 

There are three(3) things below that bear reading. First is the NWS May summary for Flagstaff. It was quite warm…until the end. In the end we had record breaking rain and cold.   Quite an interesting month… a quandry!

Below are temperature graphs for the month. They are self-explanatory.

It appears the trend will continue into June. Maybe not as wet, but probably more clouds than usual. Phantom Ranch had a record low temperature, yesterday.

NOUS45 KFGZ 011742
PNSFGZ

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1042 AM MST MON JUN 1 2009

…A MAY THAT STARTED AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD ALSO
TURNED INTO ONE OF THE WETTEST…

THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF MAY SET A PACE FOR THE MONTH TO BE ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 56.8 DEGREES. A
LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE THEN MOVED OVER THE AREA AND THE RECORD
SETTING PACE WAS SLOWED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. STARTING ON THE
18TH…THE FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT RECORDED PRECIPITATION ON 12 OF THE 15
REMAINING DAYS OF THE MONTH. AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN FELL AT THE
FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT FROM THE 20TH THROUGH 30TH. THIS 11 DAY RUN RANKS
2ND IN MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MONTH OF
MAY…AND 40TH FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION OVERALL.
THE RESULT WAS AN UNUSUALLY WET MAY…WITH 2.08 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION BEING RECORDED. MAY 2009 ENDED AS THE 5TH WETTEST ON
RECORD…1.28 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL 0.80 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FLAGSTAFF NORMALLY RECEIVES IN MAY.

THE ABNORMAL PRECIPITATION STILL WAS NOT THE ONLY STORY OF
MONTH…ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO WORKED THEIR WAY INTO THE
MIX. MAY 2009 WAS THE FIRST MAY EVER…TO NOT RECORD A LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. THE MONTH ENDED AS THE 2ND
WARMEST MAY ON RECORD WITH A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 56.0
DEGREES. BREAKING THAT DOWN INTO THE HIGHS AND LOWS…THE AVERAGE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 39.6 DEGREES…THE WARMEST AVERAGE MAY
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED. THE AVERAGE MAY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE CAME IN AS THE 8TH WARMEST MAY MAXIMUM WITH A VALUE OF
72.3 DEGREES.

CLARK

May Temperatures

May Temperatures

may-2009-ave-temp

Drying Out For a While

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on Drying Out For a While
May 312009
 

It has been a wet month and the San Fancisco Peaks are white once again (Downtown Webcam can get you a picture). I recorded 0.66 inches of precipitation for a monthly total of 1.99 inches. This includes the snow-like hail that fell. The National Weather Service at the airport reported only 0.36 inches leaving them just short of the 0.46 inch record. This brought them to 2.08 inches for the month which is 1.29 inches, or more than double the normal for the month. The record for May is 4.14 inches. We’ll see what today brings, but we probably won’t be seeing a record month.

The last week’s precip looks like this from radar estimation(from Intellicast):

Radar estimation of precipitation, 5-24-09 to 5-31-09

Radar estimation of precipitation, 5-24-09 to 5-31-09

It should dry out from here forward. There is a chance again today, but not as significant as yesterday. It continues to decline through this week. We should be warming slightly as well.  It should be a great week for getting the scooter back out on the road. There is a chance for more rain around the middle of June.

Record Breaking Temps Could Mean Cool Summer?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on Record Breaking Temps Could Mean Cool Summer?
May 062009
 

Wow, I was reading this on Monday: Thoughts on Summer

And now the National Weather Service says:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. SPRINGTIME BREEZES ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

So, we will see, but I think this summer could be quite mild and a little cooler than normal. Still not certain about precip for the summer.

March Review

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on March Review
Apr 122009
 

I blew it yesterday. We didn’t even make a quarter of an inch of water. But, everyone pretty much blew it. 4-8 inches of snow was the consensus for yesterday. The official report was 4 inches of snow, 0.21 inches of water. Oh well. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise. The whole winter season has been below normal for precip and slightly above normal on temperatures.

Way down below at the end of this post (it’s a long post) are some charts for the nation. One of the things you don’t see on this chart is that Hawaii has been quite cold. They logged their coldest March ever. Parts of the Northwest were 5-6 degrees below normal.

Arizona had its 11th warmest and 12th driest march on record. This is in contrast to the whole country being fairly mixed or more moderate. When taken as a whole, of the 115 March records, it was the 65th coolest and the 74th wettest. Both in the middle of the spectrum. For Arizona, this will hopefully change as La Nina weakens. Here is the summary for Flagstaff, warm and dry:

AVERAGE MAXIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 54.2 (NORMAL 50.3)
AVERAGE MINIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 23.7 (NORMAL 22.8)
MONTHLY MEAN................................. 39.0 (NORMAL 36.6)
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...................................... +2.4
HIGHEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH................. 41.8 IN 1989
LOWEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH.................. 26.8 IN 1973
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH....................... 67 ON  1ST
LOWEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH........................ 12 ON 31ST
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH....... 73 ON 26TH IN 1988*
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH........ -16 ON  4TH IN 1966
DAYS MAX TEMP 32 OR BELOW......................... 0 (NORMAL  4)
DAYS MAX TEMP 90 OR HIGHER........................ 0 (NORMAL  0)
DAYS MIN TEMP 32 OR BELOW........................ 29 (NORMAL 30)
DAYS MIN TEMP 0 OR BELOW.......................... 0 (NORMAL  2) *
ALSO OCCURRED ON OTHER DATES

            HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS DATA

HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH............. 800 (NORMAL  880)
HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON........... 5203 (NORMAL 5711)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH.............. 00 (NORMAL    0)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON............. 00 (NORMAL    0)

                      PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH................................. 0.22 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................................ 2.62 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................ -2.30 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE YEAR ................................. 2.43 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................................. 7.36 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................. -4.93 INCHES
GREATEST IN 24 HOURS............................... 0.17 ON 12TH
GREATEST FOR THE MONTH...................... 6.75 INCHES IN 1970
LEAST FOR THE MONTH.........................TRACE INCHES IN 1972
DAYS WITH 0.01 INCH OR MORE....................... 3  (NORMAL 9)
DAYS WITH 0.10 INCH OR MORE....................... 1  (NORMAL 6)
DAYS WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 2)
DAYS WITH 1.00 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 0)

                          SNOW DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH.................................. 0.3 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH...............................  23.9 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE SEASON...............................  81.0 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON..............................  96.4 INCHES
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH.................. 79.4 INCHES 1991
MOST DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH............ 0.3 INCHES ON 12TH

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

Spring Outlook – Rain and Snow for Sunday Night

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Spring Outlook – Rain and Snow for Sunday Night
Mar 202009
 

It won’t be a lot of water, maybe a centimeter at best, but it looks to arrive on Sunday. Snow levels should be high starting out.

I think it’s safe to say I blew the winter forecast this year. Overall, I think it’s been warm and dry. NOAA just issued their spring forecast. They are looking for continued warmth with equal chances of dry versus wet. But, they aren’t forecasting “drought” conditions. Personally, I am baffled. Warmer than average future, entering a dry season (spring is our dryest season), after a less than average wet winter…doesn’t that equal drought?

Little Moisture Today and Friday

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Little Moisture Today and Friday
Mar 122009
 

Looks like we will get highly variable amounts of moisture. Location to location amounts will be highly variable. I would be surprised if we get over a quarter of an inch of precipitation in Flagstaff. This disagrees with the National Weather Service which shows about 0.4 inches of precip.  The mountain might. It should remain fairly warm.

Still another small chance over the weekend. Spring break week should be beautiful!!!

Cold, Cold, Cold

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Cold, Cold, Cold
Feb 152009
 

Edinburgh is much colder than normal and making the news.

But, Flagstaff has undergone a serious warm to cold shift. The two graphs below show hoe temps have altered in the last couple weeks. Keep in mind, December was below normal, overall. January was above normal, overall. February looks to be a roller coaster.Right now, it is running 2 degrees below normal.

Flagstaff Temperatures - February 1-14, 2009

Flagstaff Temperatures - February 1-14, 2009

Comparison of Average Temperature to Actual

Comparison of Average Temperature to Actual

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