Jun 012009
 

There are a number of parts to looking at this summer. First we have a new tool available from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). This tool provides a local 3-month outlook by individual NWS weather station. This particular tool, which I have linked to from my main website, is showing an better chance at the summer being warm. This isn’t an unusual forecast for NOAA. They tend to be on the “everything is getting warmer” band wagon. However, their Climate Prediction Center is showing a chance for a wetter than average summer:

Summer 2009 - Precip Forecast

Summer 2009 - Precip Forecast

However, keep in mind my post from April 28, 2009 and the associated Intellicast article on the summer outlook. The Intellicast article takes into account several factors in analog years to predict the summer. Their prediction is towards a cooler summer. Unfortunately they level out a prediction for precipitation.

Usually, I like to look at the sea surface temperature anomaly in the waters that affect our precipitation. These would be the waters off the Baja Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico is fairly mild this year, so far. There is a body of warmer than normal water off the Baja, but there also appears to be a boundary of cooler water between us and there. In all, a wash for warm water driving more moisture to us.

So, in my mind, I think if we have cooler this summer, it could be wetter. If it is hotter, we could be drier.

I’ll be doing more about the Monsoon in the near future.

Apr 282009
 
Summer 2009 Prediction

Summer 2009 Prediction

This picture is a summary of previous analog years from Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast. The accompanying article can be found at ENSO Update. This analysis is based on analog years of solar activity and El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO).

If this summer is like the analog years, we could be looking at summer being a couple degrees below normal in Northern Arizona.

This outlook contrasts with the Climate Prediction Center‘s outlook below.

Climate Prediction Center Outlook May-July 2009

Climate Prediction Center Outlook May-July 2009

Apr 062009
 

I think I have mentioned in the past that Monday and Thursday afternoons can bring changes to the forecast. Today was such a day. Yesterday the Tuesday-Wednesday storm was looking like a pure wind event. Today, Monday evening, this storm is looking like it could produce a quarter to a half inch of water. I would bet on the low side. If it’s snow, that would be 2-4 inches. Still betting on the wind.

Also, next weekend’s storm is looking wetter still.

No word on when my computer will be online.

Apr 022009
 

Maybe it is obvious that the recent sporadically windy conditions are related to fronts moving through Northern Arizona. Although these fronts have provided little to no precipitation, the dominant high pressure has moved farther West, away from Arizona and the California Coast. Now, most models and long range forecasts seem to be pointing toward more moisture making it through to us.

Since I need to drive on the Mogollon Rim tomorrow, I am hoping this first wet wave hitting on Friday will not be too much trouble. The next storm should roll through Northern Arizona on Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks to be a bit wetter. Longer term, there is a chance for another storm or two in the follow 7-10 days. Also, temperatures are going to trend below normal. Each storm will probably continue to bring some wind, as well.

Mar 122009
 

Looks like we will get highly variable amounts of moisture. Location to location amounts will be highly variable. I would be surprised if we get over a quarter of an inch of precipitation in Flagstaff. This disagrees with the National Weather Service which shows about 0.4 inches of precip.  The mountain might. It should remain fairly warm.

Still another small chance over the weekend. Spring break week should be beautiful!!!

Mar 052009
 

Nothing seems to be converging. Any chance for signifcant precip keeps floating out farther into the future. Just some wind and cooler temps seem to be on tap.

But, in the meantime, here is a new article on solar influence: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Willie_Soon-Its_the_Sun_Stupid.pdf.  Enjoy!

Mar 022009
 

The South and East would argue that it is the lion’s start to March. For us, at least til Friday, it may feel like the lamb. Here are yesterday’s records:

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
Flagstaff (1899 - 2009) 67 66 in 1921
Fort Valley (1909 - 2009) 64 64 (tied) in 1986
Greer (1917 - 2009) 71 60 in 2008
Petrified Forest (1931 - 2009) 73 72 in 2008
Springerville (1912 - 2009) 70 69 in 2008
Williams (1898 - 2009) 70 68 in 1910

Temperatures are going to be near record again today. Then, we are in for a change. Clouds and cooler temps are on the menu for the rest of the week. Seems like everyone and every model is seeing something in the Friday-Sunday time frame. The Nogaps model is showing a sizeable storm, but this model has missed this far out this season. The GFS model is showing something smaller on Friday. Other forecasts are mixed in between. A couple more storms are on the way beyond next weekend.

The Shark Oil Barometer has been mostly clear, until yesterday afternoon. Now, it is clouding up again.

Feb 242009
 

Hi all, the weather is continued warmth! Enjoy.  March will bring a change. The Shark Oil Barometer is mostly clear at this point.

I have added two computer precipitation model outputs to my web pages. One is a download from the Navy, the NOGAPS Model. Most of these model runs cover out to 6 days. The other is a download from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), the GFS Model. These are image intensive and make take a little time to fully load.

Please, could folks give it a look and let me know if they are working for you? I’m not sure all the bugs have been worked out. Thanks!

Feb 102009
 

This evening all the models seem to be swinging around in an inconsistent manner.

Lots of questions about Thursday. It really doesn’t look so bad. Maybe some light stuff will fall, but I don’t think it will amount to much. Some, like Accuweather, are forecasting up to 2 inches for Thursday.

Both of the Navy provided models, NOGAPS and GFS, have just started to show the weekend storms falling apart. We will have to wait and see. Previous runs showed major precip for this weekend.

Here is the National Weather Service‘s comment about this weekend. Kinda entertaining:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS THEY SHOW
TWO SYSTEMS TO CROSS ARIZONA. THE FIRST MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED A FEW POINTS.
THE SECOND WINDS UP OVER SRN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND CROSSES
ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SECOND SYSTEM
LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS LEAVING US TODAY. OUCH! ALL ARE ENCOURAGE
TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS LATER THIS WEEK FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
SUNDAY / MONDAY SYSTEM.
Feb 102009
 

The National Weather Service finally posted Sunday’s snowfall at 12.9 inches. That broke the record of 11 inches in 1939. Monday’s snow fall was a record 14.9 inches, break a previous record of 7.6 inches in 1959

That gives us a storm total of 27.8 by the weather service numbers. For the month of February we are roughly 4 times normal snowfall, for this time of the month. For the season, since September 1, we have a conundrum. We are 18.8 inches ahead of normal snowfall, but 2.32 inches of water behind on precipitation. This is due mostly to the dry October and November. January was warmer than average, and very dry.

We could catch up this weekend. Most outlets are forecasting or modeling next weekend and early next week to be like this last weekend and Monday. And beyond…

5 visitors online now
1 guests, 4 bots, 0 members
Max visitors today: 8 at 12:15 am MST
This month: 19 at 10-04-2014 02:30 pm MST
This year: 23 at 09-30-2014 07:44 am MST
All time: 1611 at 04-27-2012 06:53 pm MST

Social Widgets powered by AB-WebLog.com.