Monsoon to Start This Week?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Monsoon to Start This Week?
Jun 222009
 

Dewpoints have remained fairly high all month. We broached 50F for the dewpoint on Saturday. The average dewpoint (from Tucson NWS Tracking site) for the day was in the low 40’s. The moisture is trying to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico and is saturating Northern Mexico. It hasn’t quite made it to Arizona in full force, yet. One of the components of the monsoon is the formation of a thermal low pressure system. We are probably missing some heat to cause the lifting of the are to form the low pressure system.

Dones’t it have to get hot before the monsoon starts?

Flip-Flop of Persistent Systems

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Flip-Flop of Persistent Systems
Feb 182009
 

If you remember this post, the early winter was strongly governed by a persistent high pressure system floating off the California Coast. Now, the situation has reversed. There seems to be a persistent low pressure system floating off the California Coast.

This change should keep the storm door open, to an extent. We should be seeing a “normal” precipitation pattern for the next couple weeks. Doesn’t seem like there will be any big dumpers, though.

It’s all about snow storage

 Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer  Comments Off on It’s all about snow storage
Feb 092009
 

The current storm should be mostly gone some time tomorrow. Off and on light stuff may linger for a while. Thursday’s wave looks like it will be weak, fast and to the north.

The weekend is a different story. Here is the GFS model from the Navy site. It shows 35-50mm of water falling in Northern Arizona, probably as snow, on Sunday afternoon. That’s 18-24 inches of snow by my estimate. So, as you shovel this week, you may want to consider where the next dumping will go. I know I still didn’t have much room in a couple spots. Some is still left over since December. There are more storms expected out to 10-14 days. Where will we put all the snow?

Sunday Night - February 15, 2009

Sunday Night - February 15, 2009

FYI: I have changed the exact location of the Shark Oil Barometer picture. It is best viewed at the bottom of this page. It’s still very cloudy!

It just doesn’t sound like that much, does it?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on It just doesn’t sound like that much, does it?
Feb 082009
 

The National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Warning that is effective through Tuesday. I think we had about 6 inches of heavy wet snow at my place this morning. Maybe a couple through the day today. Seemed pretty heavy. Wonder what the moisture content will be.

From the National Weather Service (winter storm warning)

A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BRING STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. STORM TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.

The whole warning is here.

Feb 062009
 

Here we go. I think we will get 8-12 inches of snow by Sunday night. The first wave tonight is going to be lean. The next wave, Saturday-Sunday, will be wetter. The Monday-Tuesday wave is looking like 12+ inches at this time. This wave will be quite windy, too. Temps are going to drop for this period. Brrr!

The Shark Oil Barometer is mostly cloudy this morning. It’s been building for a few days.

The storm door is open an will probably remain open for the next 10-14 days. Maybe the whole month. Here is a link that explains, in great and grave detail, how things are shaping up on a national level. Extremes of Cold and Snow

Disagreement

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Disagreement
Feb 042009
 

Looks like things are diverging across the different models and forecasts.  The fuzziness around arrival and duration are shifting around. Looks like two or three serious round of precip starting Saturday night, continuing til as late as Tuesday. Maybe something small on Thursday evening.

The long term is still up in the air. Maybe just cold, maybe snow for a couple weeks. Up in the air.

Falling Apart

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Falling Apart
Jan 252009
 

Looks like the low pressure moisture link is falling apart for Monday’s storm.  Also, it appears that the storm door will slam shut towards the end of the week with the high pressure returning. Might be two weeks before it opens again.

But, Mondays always bring forecast changes. We’ll see.

Update – Monday am:  Looks like only a few inches will fall and be quickly replaced by warmer, drier conditions by the end of the work week. Next chance is about 2 weeks out.

Pattern Shift Ahead

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Pattern Shift Ahead
Jan 192009
 

For at least the next 6-10 days, it looks like there is a good chance for things to return to the pre-Christmas, December pattern. This first round look s like it may be light on water content and cold weather. Over the weekend, the models kept switching between dry and 3/4″ of water. Now, 1/10″ to 1/4″ of water precipitation looks to be in order. But the NOGAPS and GFS models disagree. NOGAPS shows very little precip. GFS shows quite a lot. In Flagstaff, we will most likely be rain.

But wait, there is more! There are opportunities for the storms to keep moving through every few days, with temperatures dropping along the way. I can almost guarantee next week will be snowy, because of the activities I have planned.

Today the Shark Oil Barometer is totally clear. But, did you notice the clouds moving into the area? We haven’t had clouds in quite a while, I think.

Last Chance to Clear Your Roof

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Last Chance to Clear Your Roof
Jan 172009
 

Forecasts and models continue to point toward the storm door opening and remaining open for a couple weeks. This first storm may be warm in the beginning, bringing rain. But, more storms, most likely cooler, are stacked up behind it. The pattern is looking much like the Christmas timeframe.

If you need to get the snow and ice off your roof. Now would be the time. Certapro has always done a good job of removing snow on roofs.

Storm door opening

 Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer  Comments Off on Storm door opening
Jan 152009
 

Looks like everyone is lining up behind a storm moving through next Wednesday and Thursday. Current looks don’t have a ton of moisture, but they are still developing. It does look like a plume of moisture might come up from the south and help.

This morning my shark oil barometer has the developed some floating crystals. Not really cloudy, though.

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