Jun 222009
 

As we await the start of the monsoon, the water temperatures around us seem to be important. The Pacific is apparently undergoing a signficant shift to an El Nino. Here is the animation of the global sea surface temperatures and anomaly. This could supply plenty of moisture if the monsoon gets started and draws from here. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are near normal temperatures. Not as strong a moisture source. Also, the cooler water temps in the Gulf and Caribbean, and the El Nino should hinder hurricane season in the east.

As we wait, perhaps this article on the North American Monsoon is helpful

“Sun Oddly Quiet”

 Climate  Comments Off
May 052009
 

Here is a good laymen’s article from the National Geographic: “Sun Oddly Quiet — Hints at Next Little Ice Age.”

My personal opinion is that National Geographic has been too fast to jump on the Human Caused Global Warming. Here is an article from NG in 2006: “Don’t Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says.”

I think the bottom line is that we simply don’t know enough about how the Sun effects the Earth. Solar output is low right now, and has been for a couple years. But, when you consider the full spectrum radiation and the associate effects, we just don’t know enough to predict climate. Solar output during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum’s were probably similar to what we are seeing today.

Oh yeah, sunny, warm and occassionally breezy for Northern Arizona. It’s May.

Apr 122009
 

I blew it yesterday. We didn’t even make a quarter of an inch of water. But, everyone pretty much blew it. 4-8 inches of snow was the consensus for yesterday. The official report was 4 inches of snow, 0.21 inches of water. Oh well. I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise. The whole winter season has been below normal for precip and slightly above normal on temperatures.

Way down below at the end of this post (it’s a long post) are some charts for the nation. One of the things you don’t see on this chart is that Hawaii has been quite cold. They logged their coldest March ever. Parts of the Northwest were 5-6 degrees below normal.

Arizona had its 11th warmest and 12th driest march on record. This is in contrast to the whole country being fairly mixed or more moderate. When taken as a whole, of the 115 March records, it was the 65th coolest and the 74th wettest. Both in the middle of the spectrum. For Arizona, this will hopefully change as La Nina weakens. Here is the summary for Flagstaff, warm and dry:

AVERAGE MAXIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 54.2 (NORMAL 50.3)
AVERAGE MINIMUM FOR MONTH.................... 23.7 (NORMAL 22.8)
MONTHLY MEAN................................. 39.0 (NORMAL 36.6)
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...................................... +2.4
HIGHEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH................. 41.8 IN 1989
LOWEST 30 YEAR MEAN FOR THE MONTH.................. 26.8 IN 1973
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH....................... 67 ON  1ST
LOWEST TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH........................ 12 ON 31ST
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH....... 73 ON 26TH IN 1988*
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH........ -16 ON  4TH IN 1966
DAYS MAX TEMP 32 OR BELOW......................... 0 (NORMAL  4)
DAYS MAX TEMP 90 OR HIGHER........................ 0 (NORMAL  0)
DAYS MIN TEMP 32 OR BELOW........................ 29 (NORMAL 30)
DAYS MIN TEMP 0 OR BELOW.......................... 0 (NORMAL  2) *
ALSO OCCURRED ON OTHER DATES

            HEATING AND COOLING DEGREE DAYS DATA

HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH............. 800 (NORMAL  880)
HEATING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON........... 5203 (NORMAL 5711)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE MONTH.............. 00 (NORMAL    0)
COOLING DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON............. 00 (NORMAL    0)

                      PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH................................. 0.22 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................................ 2.62 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE MONTH................ -2.30 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE YEAR ................................. 2.43 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................................. 7.36 INCHES
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR THE YEAR................. -4.93 INCHES
GREATEST IN 24 HOURS............................... 0.17 ON 12TH
GREATEST FOR THE MONTH...................... 6.75 INCHES IN 1970
LEAST FOR THE MONTH.........................TRACE INCHES IN 1972
DAYS WITH 0.01 INCH OR MORE....................... 3  (NORMAL 9)
DAYS WITH 0.10 INCH OR MORE....................... 1  (NORMAL 6)
DAYS WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 2)
DAYS WITH 1.00 INCH OR MORE....................... 0  (NORMAL 0)

                          SNOW DATA

TOTAL FOR THE MONTH.................................. 0.3 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH...............................  23.9 INCHES
TOTAL FOR THE SEASON...............................  81.0 INCHES
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON..............................  96.4 INCHES
RECORD SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH.................. 79.4 INCHES 1991
MOST DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH............ 0.3 INCHES ON 12TH

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Temperature Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

March 2009 Precipitation Rank

Mar 312009
 

Most forecasts are trending toward a breakdown of the high pressure along the California Coast and the storm door to open up for next week. This has been the repetitive story this winter. So, we know there is a chance nothing will come of it. But, more and more forecasts are lining up for a first round on Friday evening and more the following week. Keep your fingers crossed.

On another note, here is a great summary of Surface Temperature Measurement Issues for Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast.

Mar 182009
 

It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.

The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold.  From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather

Who to believe?

 Climate  Comments Off
Mar 012009
 

Here is an excellent article (Global Warming is Minimal) from the Denver Post Opinion Page.

There are more and more lay people becoming adequately educated in ths area. The data just don’t match the alarmist hypotheses.

Some people are in the human caused global warming(HCGW) business to make a lot of money. This was the founding theory of ENRON. They set-up their business to harness the required energy management of the Kyoto agreement. When it didn’t happen, they had to behave otherwise. Billions of dollars of research money depend on people being concerned about HCGW.

Some people use HCGW to maintain their power position. This is a chapter straight from 1984. Al Gore is one of these. Margaret Thatcher used HCGW in the 1970’s to lessen the power wielded by coal unions.

Now, this doesn’t mean we shouldn’t conserve our natural resources, or strive to control pollution. But, we should question people that want us to live in fear.

I highly recommend reading two books, 1984 by George Orwell and State of Fear by Michael Crichton.

Jan 122009
 

There maybe a change over the horizon, beyond 7 days. The high pressure has moved and doesn’t look as large or organized. Hopefully, it will breakdown. The Shark Oil Barometer is bright and clear.

In the meantime, here are some interesting links:

Enjoy! Please, check out the Shark Oil Barometer.

(edited Tuesday, January 13 to include following) So, I think it’s important to note that Accuweather has been forecasting snow or ice for next Tuesday-Wednesday, January 20-21, since about the 5th or 6th of January. As that time frame creeps into the other forecasts, it will be interesting to see what they all say. If memory serves, they were right on the money for the December storms, even in their very long 15-day look.

Jan 112009
 

Here are two summaries.

First, here is a link to a summary of 2008 Global Tropical Cyclone Season by Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is often cited for support of global warming. But, it that is the case shouldn’t the cyclone number and strength be increasing everywhere? Another point of contention is how long have we been accurately recording tropical cyclone activity. Since the Caribbean Sea has been continuously sailed for several hundred years, some think we have accurate records there. In reality, many hurricanes could go completely undetected until satellites and aerial surveillance were available. Personally, I believe we only have a few decades of good information about North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. For more information, here are the hurricane reviews(2008) and fore cast(2009) by Dr. Bill Gray’s group at Colorado State

Jan 012009
 

Here is a great link about the current solar minimum and some of the potential effects of the sun on climate. In 2008, the sun produced it’s second lowest number of sunspots in a given year since 1900.

Bundle up! We could be in for a very long cold spell.

Here is a link to much more in-depth information about Solar Cycle history. Set aside some time to read this one.

One more link with more info on the link to climate: Solar Cycle and Climate

Dec 072008
 

The on-again, off-again storm is back on.  Looks like something is going to come through town between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morn. Seems like it will just be a heavy dusting up to an inch or two.

I am hoping this confusion is a sign of an overall change in the weather patterns for the southwest.  A change that will hopefully bring us snow!  Most forecasting outlets and long range models are pointing to such a change next weekend.  But, it seems like it is always coming “next weekend.”

Looks like 2008 will be declared the coolest year in a decade.  Even with our recent warm temps in the southwest, the rest of the planet has had a frosty time of it.  Stay tuned for more.

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