Little Moisture Today and Friday

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Little Moisture Today and Friday
Mar 122009
 

Looks like we will get highly variable amounts of moisture. Location to location amounts will be highly variable. I would be surprised if we get over a quarter of an inch of precipitation in Flagstaff. This disagrees with the National Weather Service which shows about 0.4 inches of precip.  The mountain might. It should remain fairly warm.

Still another small chance over the weekend. Spring break week should be beautiful!!!

Storm door is open

 Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer  Comments Off on Storm door is open
Feb 092009
 

Yesterday’s storm yielded 0.68 inches of water.  Unfortunately, they provided the MM (measurement missing) code for the snowfall amount. I think we had 8-10 inches at my house by last night. It is a south facing slope. Arizona Snowbowl reported 11-16 inches from the storm.

10-18 inches in on tap for the next 24 hours. A little bit more may fall around Thursday, but I doubt it. Next weekend is almost certainly a mess. The storm door is open, possibly for the next 10-14 days. Get out the roof rake.

The Shark Oil Barometer is fully clouded.

Just cracks me up

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Just cracks me up
Jan 032009
 

Well, nothing seems to be stable on this up coming storm. One thing seems clear, if the high pressure system wasn’t around, we would be looking at a real mess. Apparently, it is a timing issue:

  1. Low pressure arrival time and strength
  2. Moisture arrival time, apparently plentiful

The models keep bouncing between little to no accumulation to larger amounts.  Here is a summary:

Source

Low (in)

High (in)

Nat’l Wx Service

3

8

Accuweather

4

10

Wunderground

3

8

Navy NOGAPS

4

10

Navy GFS

0

0

Intellicast

2

4

Some interpolation and interpretation of the forecasting information was necessary to get those numbers. The NOGAPS forecast has completely flip-flopped since yesterday. The Accuweather forecast had dropped any significant accumulation on Thursday and Friday morning. I guess this will be a watch and wait.

My daughter has a birthday on Monday and would like to not have school. So, I think she deserves that and think the weather will answer with enough snow to at least delay school.

Just a Dusting in Flagstaff

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Just a Dusting in Flagstaff
Jan 012009
 

The high pressure off the coast is still blocking the storm flow. Although a system will move through, it will basically leapfrog the northland. The San Francisco Peaks may get heavier amounts. Think snow for Snowbowl.

Once again, NOGAPS has been showing this for a few days.

Thanks to everyone that has visited recently.  Here is the hit stats for the lsat few months.

Past 3 months

Past 3 months

Whoops!

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Whoops!
Dec 232008
 

Ok, I guess I blew that one.  I didn’t thin the precip would start til after dark. But, this is part of the fun of Flagstaff living. One little blip of moisture can make a huge difference. Now, I am betting on a storm total of 8-12 inches by noon on Tuesday.

Looks like about 12 inches will be here with the Christmas Storm. Here’s to Bing Crosby’s White Christmas!

Record Snowfall – Latest Storm

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Record Snowfall – Latest Storm
Dec 202008
 

Tuesday’s snowfall was a record for that date.  So far, December is over double the normal for the month.  But remember, the fall was both dryer than normal.  Since, September 1, we are at roughly half of normal.  The storm door continues to look open for the next two weeks. Snowbowl opened today with excellent powder skiing according to the people who went.

Looks like there is a chance for a White Christmas.  I won’t forecast for Christmas until sometime Monday.

For the six-straight days of precip, the details are below.  Again, hats off to the folks working the plows around here.

Date Precip Snow
12/13/2008 0.05 0.60
12/14/2008 0.06 0.30
12/15/2008 0.24 4.00
12/16/2008 0.35 8.00 Record
12/17/2008 1.06 7.30
12/18/2008 0.48 missing

The storm door is open

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on The storm door is open
Dec 162008
 

We have about 10 inches at my house this morning at 530am. Still, I think we will end-up with 12-18 from this first storm.  I think the winds with the snow is an unusual feature for this storm.  Typically, I would expected it to drop before the snow begins.

About the same or more snow from the second.  Temps are going to be in the single digits this week.

Looking to the next two weeks, it seems the storm door may be open. See picture underneath. Above normal precipitation and below normal temps are on tap for the holidays.

Looks like the Arizona Snowbowl is going to hurry to open as fast as they can.

8-14 day outlook

8-14 day outlook

Looks like we made it

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Looks like we made it
Dec 092008
 

We made it through Monday afternoon with strengthening forecasts for snow tonight and more importantly, this weekend.  Looks like tonight’s precip will be light.  This weekend is shaping up to a big change! Might we be looking at the slopes being open at Christmas?

Thanksgiving Summary

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Thanksgiving Summary
Nov 282008
 

All rain for town with the Turkey-day Storm. Received about 3/4″ of rain at my house. The National Weather service is reporting about the same. The Snowbowl’s website seems to point at Friday afternoon being the next time someone will be up there. KAZFLAGSS22 shows about 2/3″ of rain. So, a good storm for the area, but maybe not as wet as hoped by some.

Several sites, wunderground, accuweather and nws all indicate the chance for a storm about 1 week out.  Unfortunately, no storms are showing up in the GFS or NOGAPS models from the Navy.  Hopefully, the storms will continue to breakdown the coastal high pressure and draw moisture up from the south, the way the most recent storm did.

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