This winter will be difficult to forecast

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on This winter will be difficult to forecast
Dec 022016
 

ShareOver the last week, I’ve watched the computer models bounce around. For the most part, the precipitation part of the models has calmed down to indicate two weeks of mostly dry weather for Arizona…or so I thought. The temperature models have been worse the last few days. Devastating cold and wonderful warmth are the walls […]

 Posted by at 11:30 pm

Everything changes on the Monday after Thanksgiving

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Everything changes on the Monday after Thanksgiving
Nov 292016
 

ShareComputer models need tweaking to adjust to what’s really going on in the world. It looks like quite a bit changed between Sunday and Monday. The real timeline is probably between last Wednesday and Monday. On weekends and holidays, the computer models more or less independently produce the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks at the […]

 Posted by at 5:40 am

Advisory, watch, warning?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Advisory, watch, warning?
Nov 272016
 

ShareWith 5-10 inches of snow on the way for Flagstaff, and more for other areas, what the heck do all the National Weather Service’s key words and catchy phrases mean. Advisories mean, “Hey, there’s something you should probably keep in the back of your mind as you plan your activities.” From a kid’s point of […]

 Posted by at 1:08 am

Wait a minute…Did Stu just post after two months of silence?

 Uncategorized  Comments Off on Wait a minute…Did Stu just post after two months of silence?
Nov 252016
 

ShareYes, I did. If you look below, you will get a feel for why I’ve been disengaged for a while. Some requires reading between the lines. Some doesn’t. Austria, Germany, United States, Italy, The Netherlands, Scotland, England, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain, and the Czech Republic makes 11 countries. Oh wait! I forgot about France (but […]

 Posted by at 12:08 pm

Wonderful December Weather Ahead!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wonderful December Weather Ahead!
Nov 242016
 

ShareFor those that follow me on Facebook, you will notice the posts about the spreading snow in Siberia and what it means for the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this winter. I think the key point is that El Nino overrides the impact early Siberian snowfall. But, we are heading towards La Nina this winter. […]

 Posted by at 11:15 am

A different look at the numbers.

 Models, Monsoon  Comments Off on A different look at the numbers.
Sep 032016
 

ShareI friend of mine reported heavy, torrential downpours in Flagstaff on Friday. This is typically good news. When I looked for the rainfall total at the Flagstaff Airport, the weather station had reported no rain for the day. When I looked at a couple of downtown weather stations, KAZFLAGS42 and KAZFLAGS82, on Wunderground.com, I found […]

 Posted by at 4:36 am

Second wettest August since 1950

 Hurricane, Record  Comments Off on Second wettest August since 1950
Aug 272016
 

ShareWith two days of record rainfall, 1.41 inches on Friday, 0.94 inches on Saturday, the total precipitation for August at the Flagstaff airport is 6.34 inches. Since placing the National Weather Service placed the weather station at the Flagstaff Airport in 1950, only August of 1986 had higher rainfall at 8.06 inches. This brings the […]

 Posted by at 11:10 pm

Weather is always odd

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Weather is always odd
Aug 112016
 

ShareAs the most recent batch of moisture, which was left over from a tropical system, starts to leave Arizona, the outlooks have switched. We still have a dry period ahead, but then more moisture will return in about a week. At least, it looks that way today. Yesterday, NOAA increased it’s outlook for Atlantic hurricane […]

 Posted by at 9:35 pm

Don’t get too used to being dry

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t get too used to being dry
Aug 062016
 

ShareWith July finishing nearly on average for precipitation and over two inches falling already in August, the next few days should be mostly drier. But, don’t get used to it. I think the current break in the action is due to a couple of tropical systems moving around Southern and Central Mexico. These have shutdown […]

 Posted by at 9:52 pm

Strong precipitation outlook for the next month

 Models, Monsoon, Outlooks  Comments Off on Strong precipitation outlook for the next month
Jul 222016
 

ShareThe Climate Prediction Center released new 6-1o day, 8-14 day and 1 month outlooks on Thursday. Even though Flagstaff’s July precipitation is half of normal for this point in the month, the next month of the monsoon season should be above average. Below is an animation of these outlooks. Share

 Posted by at 8:40 am
8 visitors online now
2 guests, 6 bots, 0 members
Max visitors today: 8 at 11:24 am UTC
This month: 10 at 10-02-2017 01:31 pm UTC
This year: 86 at 03-09-2017 03:59 pm UTC
All time: 1611 at 04-27-2012 06:53 pm UTC