Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range
Dec 222016
 

ShareNot a big post today. As we get closer to the weekend, higher resolution computer models are available. The White Christmas picture keeps looking better and better…assuming you will not be driving this weekend. In the higher resolution North American Mesoscale model (NAM), Flagstaff is easily in the lighter shades of red/pink. 8-14 inches of […]

 Posted by at 7:09 am

Even Better!!!

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Even Better!!!
Dec 202016
 

ShareThis morning there is good agreement on timing, storm tracks and precipitation amounts in the NoGaps and the GFS model. Both show a pair of storms bring moisture and a White Christmas to Northern Arizona. This gives us a great graphic from Tropical Tidbits. I think Flagstaff is comfortably in the 3-6 inch range for […]

 Posted by at 4:56 am

More agreement on White Christmas

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on More agreement on White Christmas
Dec 192016
 

ShareMonday morning forecasts are tricky. Everything seems to change as people show up to work and pay more attention to what’s going on with the weather and the computer models. Still, this morning, there is more agreement between the GFS and Navy models. The Navy model shows precipitation starting on Friday afternoon and lasting at […]

 Posted by at 4:49 am

Navy says we may have a very White Christmas

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Navy says we may have a very White Christmas
Dec 182016
 

ShareI was feeling under the weather. Both because I have a cold, and the GFS computer model was not predicting any precipitation. Below is the 24 hour precipitation GFS model forecast for Friday, December 23, 2016. You’ll notice that the Arizona is covered in white, meaning no rain or snow. The rest of the intervening […]

 Posted by at 6:29 am

Warm, wet storm Thursday to Saturday

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Warm, wet storm Thursday to Saturday
Dec 142016
 

ShareThe temperatures for the approaching storm will keep the snow levels high, at least for much of the storm. However, the storm still could bring plenty of rain to Flagstaff, and snow to the Peaks. The best news is that it looks like there will be a storm track for the next couple weeks that […]

 Posted by at 11:04 am

Did anyone order a White Christmas?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Did anyone order a White Christmas?
Dec 102016
 

ShareI’m hoping I can bring some winter with me next weekend. And, it looks very much like I can. The jet stream shift continues in the computer models. The timing of the storm is Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Here is the 24 precipitation total ending I used the precipitation total instead of snowfall because […]

 Posted by at 1:29 am

Is this the picture for this winter?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Is this the picture for this winter?
Dec 082016
 

ShareThe jet stream is pushing storms mostly to the north of Arizona. Many strong storms have recently missed Arizona, but left snow and rain from Northern California to Colorado. Currently, the jet stream seems to be stable in it’s northerly trek. Notice the reds and purples in the image below. Will this be the trend […]

 Posted by at 4:13 am

This winter will be difficult to forecast

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on This winter will be difficult to forecast
Dec 022016
 

ShareOver the last week, I’ve watched the computer models bounce around. For the most part, the precipitation part of the models has calmed down to indicate two weeks of mostly dry weather for Arizona…or so I thought. The temperature models have been worse the last few days. Devastating cold and wonderful warmth are the walls […]

 Posted by at 11:30 pm

Everything changes on the Monday after Thanksgiving

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Everything changes on the Monday after Thanksgiving
Nov 292016
 

ShareComputer models need tweaking to adjust to what’s really going on in the world. It looks like quite a bit changed between Sunday and Monday. The real timeline is probably between last Wednesday and Monday. On weekends and holidays, the computer models more or less independently produce the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks at the […]

 Posted by at 5:40 am

Advisory, watch, warning?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Advisory, watch, warning?
Nov 272016
 

ShareWith 5-10 inches of snow on the way for Flagstaff, and more for other areas, what the heck do all the National Weather Service’s key words and catchy phrases mean. Advisories mean, “Hey, there’s something you should probably keep in the back of your mind as you plan your activities.” From a kid’s point of […]

 Posted by at 1:08 am
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