Jul 152014
 

Looking out 2 weeks, you might think so. Today is the last day in the current forecasts and outlooks when Northern Arizona can strongly expect rain. The winds are going to shift back to a southwesterly origin and bring dry air. Below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The Climate Prediction Center issues new [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
Jul 072014
 

To kickoff the monsoon season in fine form, the Flagstaff Airport received a record-breaking 1.89 inches of rain on July 4, 2014. I didn’t see it reported in the Arizona Daily Sun’s website. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1239 AM MST SAT JUL 05 2014 …RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FLAGSTAFF [...]

 Posted by at 6:40 am
Jul 032014
 

Dew point temperatures across Arizona will move higher over the next few days. This means more widespread thunder showers across the area. A friend of mine, TB, was mentioning his plans to hike around one of the creek beds near Sedona for the 4th of July. Flash flooding is a serious issue in the desert. [...]

 Posted by at 6:50 am
Jun 262014
 

The 8-14 day outlooks continue to look wet. Thursday, the 6-10 Day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center looks wet, too. This 6-10 day outlook includes July 2-8. The signs are good for a change to the monsoonal flow next week.   Tweet

 Posted by at 1:08 pm

Wind forecast fades

 Monsoon  Comments Off
Jun 252014
 

I think the winds have taken a bit longer than usual to fade so that the monsoonal flow could begin. The winds have been strong and out of the west to southwest. Finally, the wind outlook shows the strength dropping through this weekend and swinging around to the south to southeast by early next week. [...]

 Posted by at 12:06 pm
Jun 242014
 

Well, the Climate Prediction Center has made a major shift in its 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Yesterday, most of Arizona moved into the above average precipitation zone for the 8-14 day period.  This period starts on July 2. This is very positive news of a wet and timely start to the monsoon season.   On [...]

 Posted by at 5:55 pm
Jun 192014
 

The good news is that most of Northern Arizona remains in the above average precipitation zone for the summer. Still, I don’t believe El NiƱo is the link. There are a combination of factors. The Climate Prediction Center issued a new 3-month outlook last week. The bad news is that the winds may not leave [...]

 Posted by at 11:09 am
Jun 112014
 

The Arizona Daily Sun published this article over the weekend: Forecasters: Wet Summer and Winter likely in Flagstaff. This article hints at El Nino as the cause for both extra rainfall this summer and more snow next winter. About a month ago I started to look into El Nino’s effects on Flagstaff’s summer precipitation. My [...]

 Posted by at 7:01 am
Jun 102014
 

It’s still nearly a week away, but next Sunday and Monday could be rather wet if the US Navy NoGAPs forecast is correct. This storm doesn’t show up in the GFS forecast, but there is something weak in the Global Ensemble forecast. We will see. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:35 am
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