Rain, snow, and no more one-two punches

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Rain, snow, and no more one-two punches
Jan 052017
 

ShareI think the computer modelers are still struggling with the sea surface temperature inputs from the Pacific. It looks like things have settled down in the models. The storm pattern from Christmas and New Year’s seems to have stopped. The storm track is more northerly. Northern Arizona will miss the larger storm centers and only […]

 Posted by at 8:40 am

Will Flagstaff escape the next round of severe cold?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Will Flagstaff escape the next round of severe cold?
Dec 302016
 

ShareSnow is still on the way for the weekend, but the new question is how cold will Flagstaff be with next punishing cold wave. Current forecasts don’t look too bad. Temperatures in the low 30s for highs, and single digits for lows. But look at the outlook for the rest of the country! The deeper […]

 Posted by at 6:14 am

Full Circle – One-two punch back for weekend.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Full Circle – One-two punch back for weekend.
Dec 292016
 

ShareGood Grief! Scattered light snow showers, maybe rain, with the chance of occasional heavy snow! This morning the Navy model has flipped back to the one-two punch. The GFS model isn’t far behind. This winter continues to be one of the toughest to forecast. Friday night into Saturday is the first round. Sunday is the […]

 Posted by at 6:33 am

New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again
Dec 282016
 

ShareIt looks like the computer models are focusing on a weaker version of last weekend. Just a few inches of snow are possible. Most likely, it will be on Saturday, with lighter precipitation on either side. In any case, I would be ready for winter weather this weekend, particularly if you are traveling. Here is […]

 Posted by at 7:07 am

Another complex forecast – New Year’s?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Another complex forecast – New Year’s?
Dec 272016
 

ShareThe Navy NoGaps or NAVGEM model isn’t matching the GFS model again. But this time, it’s the other way around. The Navy model from this morning so a dry spell ahead with no repeat of last weekend. The GFS model shows a pair of major storms hitting Arizona again. The one-two punch of last week […]

 Posted by at 6:33 am

Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff
Dec 252016
 

ShareDecember 24, 2016 set a new record for snow fall at 10.1 inches it beats the old record of 4 inches in 1914. White Christmases are rare! Merry Christmas to all! Public Information Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1220 AM MST Sun Dec 25 2016 …Snowfall Reports as of 12 AM MST Sunday December […]

 Posted by at 5:43 am

Enjoy! Merry White Christmas!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Enjoy! Merry White Christmas!
Dec 242016
 

ShareNot much has changed in the outlook. Snow is on it’s way to Northern Arizona. After a windy morning, accumulations in the 8-12 inches will mostly arrive this afternoon and evening(Storm Warning text is below the graphic). Ta-da! White Christmas! Be very careful with travel!!! What’s possibly more interesting is that it looks like a […]

 Posted by at 6:31 am

White Christmas Storm Watch

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on White Christmas Storm Watch
Dec 232016
 

ShareUpdated: Friday Afternoon, Dec 23, 2016. Winter Storm Warning It’s almost here. But first, an admission (I mean I got something wrong, not a ticket to the movies). I got the timing wrong on the arrival of the rain in the Northland. It came earlier than I expected. I was watching the White Christmas event […]

 Posted by at 6:13 am

Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range
Dec 222016
 

ShareNot a big post today. As we get closer to the weekend, higher resolution computer models are available. The White Christmas picture keeps looking better and better…assuming you will not be driving this weekend. In the higher resolution North American Mesoscale model (NAM), Flagstaff is easily in the lighter shades of red/pink. 8-14 inches of […]

 Posted by at 7:09 am

Even Better!!!

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Even Better!!!
Dec 202016
 

ShareThis morning there is good agreement on timing, storm tracks and precipitation amounts in the NoGaps and the GFS model. Both show a pair of storms bring moisture and a White Christmas to Northern Arizona. This gives us a great graphic from Tropical Tidbits. I think Flagstaff is comfortably in the 3-6 inch range for […]

 Posted by at 4:56 am
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