Running behind on winter

 El Nino/La Nina, Outlooks  Comments Off on Running behind on winter
Nov 102014
 

I usually shoot for the end of September to write my first post for the winter. Historically, this is because Arizona Snowbowl was dependent on natural snow. Now, they make their own snow. As a result, making the early decision about buying a season pass at a discount doesn’t matter so much. As early as […]

 Posted by at 7:08 am

Vapor lock, another weather related phenomenon

 Lake Powell, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Vapor lock, another weather related phenomenon
Oct 122014
 

If you know me or my blog, you know I watch Lake Powell. Most of my posts are about the water level increase expected each spring and early summer. But many boaters have reported weather problems at the lake that weren’t related to dust storms, thunderstorms or wind storms. Triple digit temperatures are a common […]

 Posted by at 6:35 pm

Simon’s not so simple

 Hurricane, Models, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Simon’s not so simple
Oct 062014
 

The remnants of Hurricane Simon are on their way to Arizona. The big question is still around which path he will take. The Navy NoGAPs computer model has the bulk of the storm going to the west and north of Flagstaff. The GFS model has the storm going to the south and east of Flagstaff. […]

 Posted by at 5:27 pm

Product Review – WR-299 Emergency Weather Radio

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Product Review – WR-299 Emergency Weather Radio
Oct 042014
 

Something new for my blog readers. I’m going to occasionally add reviews for product that are weather related to my blog. First up is the new WR-299 Weather Radio. Please watch the video for details. This is a great compact emergency weather radio that offers AM/FM and Weather bands. It also have an Alert Mode […]

 Posted by at 2:19 pm

Wet fall and early winter according to Climate Prediction Center

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Wet fall and early winter according to Climate Prediction Center
Sep 302014
 

I’ve struggled the last few days with a broken internet connection, malfunctioning iPhone and a rainy weekend. The weekend struggle was the wonderful malaise that can hit Arizonans when it rains all day. Nonetheless, the Climate Prediction Center issued new outlooks for October and the 3-month period October to December. The outlooks point to El […]

 Posted by at 7:10 am

Severe weather marks end of monsoon season

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Severe weather marks end of monsoon season
Sep 272014
 

A strong cold front is crossing Arizona from west to east today. While the moisture is coming from the south, the cold front is a winter weather phenomenon for Arizona. We are expecting fast-moving thunderstorms with heavy rain and other severe weather. This is reminiscent of the storms on October 6, 2010. The National Weather […]

 Posted by at 7:02 am

There still seems to be a line, or two.

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on There still seems to be a line, or two.
Sep 162014
 

I have zoomed in and cropped the image below. There is still a pronounced boundary to the heavy precipitation area. The precipitation scale is the same as in the earlier image in my last post. This is from a shorter range, high-resolution model. I think Flagstaff ends up in the 3/4 to 1 inch range. […]

 Posted by at 6:49 am

Which side of the line will we be on?

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Which side of the line will we be on?
Sep 152014
 

Watching the GFS animation for the next 7 days this morning, I noticed a curious flow in the precipitation pattern. This flow reminded me of our last interaction with the remnants of a hurricane. Hurricane Norbert’s moisture missed us by traveling barely south of us. Next up for us are the remnants of Hurricane Odile. […]

 Posted by at 6:34 am

Monsoon season isn’t over, yet.

 Hurricane, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Monsoon season isn’t over, yet.
Sep 112014
 

The newest 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks show wet conditions continuing. We should be dry today and Friday. There is a chance for showers over the weekend and into early next week. Sometime in the second half of next week, tropical storm, soon hurricane, Odile will deliver more moisture to Arizona. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:28 am

That was disappointing?

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on That was disappointing?
Sep 092014
 

Mother nature decided to blow the forecast away. There was a ton of moisture in Arizona’s atmosphere. Below is an image from Intellicast.com that shows an estimate of daily precipitation based on radar imagery. If you compare this image to from the National Weather Service, you can see that things didn’t turn out to forecast. […]

 Posted by at 6:51 am
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