Wind forecast fades

 Monsoon  Comments Off
Jun 252014

I think the winds have taken a bit longer than usual to fade so that the monsoonal flow could begin. The winds have been strong and out of the west to southwest. Finally, the wind outlook shows the strength dropping through this weekend and swinging around to the south to southeast by early next week. [...]

 Posted by at 12:06 pm
Jun 242014

Well, the Climate Prediction Center has made a major shift in its 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Yesterday, most of Arizona moved into the above average precipitation zone for the 8-14 day period.  This period starts on July 2. This is very positive news of a wet and timely start to the monsoon season.   On [...]

 Posted by at 5:55 pm
Jun 192014

The good news is that most of Northern Arizona remains in the above average precipitation zone for the summer. Still, I don’t believe El NiƱo is the link. There are a combination of factors. The Climate Prediction Center issued a new 3-month outlook last week. The bad news is that the winds may not leave [...]

 Posted by at 11:09 am
Jun 112014

The Arizona Daily Sun published this article over the weekend: Forecasters: Wet Summer and Winter likely in Flagstaff. This article hints at El Nino as the cause for both extra rainfall this summer and more snow next winter. About a month ago I started to look into El Nino’s effects on Flagstaff’s summer precipitation. My [...]

 Posted by at 7:01 am
Jun 102014

It’s still nearly a week away, but next Sunday and Monday could be rather wet if the US Navy NoGAPs forecast is correct. This storm doesn’t show up in the GFS forecast, but there is something weak in the Global Ensemble forecast. We will see. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:35 am
May 252014

With a fire at this time of year, it’s natural to look at the calendar and think about how long until monsoon season, and will it be a good one. The Climate Prediction Center has Flagstaff inside the above normal region for the June-August and the July-September 3-month precipitation outlooks(see below). The current June outlook [...]

 Posted by at 4:55 am
May 242014

I haven’t posted for nearly a month. There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that dry, windy conditions just aren’t that interesting. Their normal for this time of year and we should expect it. Second, I have had a couple of long international trips in the last month. One for business. One [...]

 Posted by at 8:33 am
Apr 252014

This weekend will be another cooler, wetter weekend. The precipitation forecast in the North American Mesoscale model shows Flagstaff in the one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation zone. This could be the most significant storm in months. We should see mostly unfrozen precipitation, but if temperatures are low enough, some very temporary snow [...]

 Posted by at 6:37 am
Apr 222014

I noticed the new 3-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. For May, June and July, they are forecasting above average precipitation for the 4-corners region. Flagstaff is at the edge of the “green” zone. The questions I have are about the emerging potential for an El Nino building over the summer. I don’t think [...]

 Posted by at 6:43 am
Apr 172014

Well, a small chance of scatter showers looks pretty good now. But, the reality is that we won’t see much precipitation. For most of the Easter Weekend, we will have clouds and cooler temperatures and occasionally light rain. It’s very dry out there. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:55 am
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