Apr 172014

Well, a small chance of scatter showers looks pretty good now. But, the reality is that we won’t see much precipitation. For most of the Easter Weekend, we will have clouds and cooler temperatures and occasionally light rain. It’s very dry out there. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:55 am
Apr 072014

I haven’t written much lately. Mostly because our weather continues as mostly unremarkable and harmless. As warm and dry as it has been, we haven’t really set any significant records. This morning, our temperatures are in the mid-40s, roughly 20 degrees above normal. The next few days should have low winds, and plenty of sunshine. [...]

 Posted by at 6:39 am
Mar 312014

The computer models don’t agree and are not even consistent between runs. It looks like an April Fool’s Day joke. Back in 1999, we had a similar experience. Beautiful, above average temperatures and sunshine were in the forecast for April 1. On the afternoon of March 31, it started to snow. I remember because my [...]

 Posted by at 5:22 am
Mar 122014

For the last week or so, the computer models have generated a storm forming to the east of Flagstaff tomorrow. This morning, everything seems to have changed. We are now looking at a nice round of rain and snow for tomorrow. Even though the storm appears pretty strong in the models, the National Weather Service [...]

 Posted by at 8:13 am
Mar 042014

Last weeks storm provided some needed relief to many parts of Arizona. We didn’t get as much as expected. There is a chance for another bit of rain on Friday or Saturday. It isn’t steady in the computer models. But, the Climate Prediction Center posted a new one-month outlook. Unfortunately, the Climate Prediction Center based [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
Mar 022014

The radar summary below from Intellicast tells the story. As band of rain and thunderstorms moved across the state, they were too far south. I don’t know about how you feel, but I don’t like being stuck in the middle between storm paths. There isn’t much more in the next week or so. Sorry. Tweet

 Posted by at 7:08 am
Feb 282014

As expected, temperatures around Flagstaff are warm this morning; in the upper 30s and low 40s. The outlook for snow is pretty weak because of the high temperatures. However, Arizona Snowbowl could receive 2-3 feet of new snow with this storm. The National Weather Service hasn’t posted any alerts, yet. If temperatures drop, our outlook [...]

 Posted by at 4:38 am
Feb 262014

As our storm approaches, the computer models are predicting more precipitation. The 5-day precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center shows a peak of 4.4 inches. This would completely reverse our deficit since September 1, 2013. But, forecast temperatures remain above average. The daily minimum temperature anomaly for the next 5 days is +9 degrees [...]

 Posted by at 4:10 am
Feb 252014

Thursday will usher in a wetter pattern. With the “polar vortex” moving into the Midwest and Eastern United States, our temperatures are going to stay warm until the weekend. We probably won’t see significant precipitation until Friday night. While the precipitation will continue until Monday, the intensity will drop during the day on Sunday. Since [...]

 Posted by at 4:22 am
Feb 222014

As we closer to the start of March, the storm track shifts to the south. A couple of storms had faded in and out of the models. Currently, the GFS and NoGAPs models for Saturday, March 1, align and show moderate storm moving quickly across Arizona. Below is an image for the GFS model run [...]

 Posted by at 6:47 am
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