Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Nevermind…
Mar 052016

ShareEverything keeps falling apart from a storm point of view. Enjoy the continued early spring. Share

 Posted by at 12:29 am

March to be a flip-flop of February

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on March to be a flip-flop of February
Mar 012016

ShareThe outlooks and computer models are solidifying around a wet March. It starts this weekend with a mild storm with light precipitation. The pattern builds through the month. The precipitation in the first two weeks of March could hit the monthly average. More details as the future storms are closer. Below is the 6-10 day, […]

 Posted by at 9:39 pm

It’s always just over the horizon.

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on It’s always just over the horizon.
Feb 292016

ShareThe computer models keep dropping a significant storm into the long-range forecast. If you look at the image from my last post, it shows significant precipitation around March 4, 2016. The forecasts do point to some precipitation this weekend, but not the large amount in that image. The problem is that the big storm is […]

 Posted by at 8:48 pm
Feb 192016

ShareWarm and dry has become the February story. The wet cold start has faded into sun and occasional high winds. There have be a few times the outlook was positive for wet conditions. It hasn’t happened. Is it unusual for February to be dry during an El Niño winter. I think the data are pretty […]

 Posted by at 4:50 pm

Purplish Picture Present Promising Precipitation

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Purplish Picture Present Promising Precipitation
Jan 292016

ShareI’ve looked at a new site for computer model data. I think the pictures are prettier than the US Government site. No surprise there. The snow fall pictures are purple and orange for this weekend. It looks like the Flagstaff groundhogs will have a bit of digging to do to get to above the snow […]

 Posted by at 10:11 pm

Pre-Groundhog’s Day storm coming

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Pre-Groundhog’s Day storm coming
Jan 242016

ShareI don’t know if a groundhog living in Flagstaff will see his shadow on February 2. But, it will see some fresh snow. Next Sunday and Monday should be snowy. For the last few days the GFS model has repeatedly shown snow for these days. The amounts have varied. Some model runs have over 1.5 […]

 Posted by at 2:13 am

I’m confused, or not…

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on I’m confused, or not…
Jan 052016

ShareI’m looking at Wunderground‘s, the National Weather Services and Accuweather‘s precipitation forecasts. (The National Weather Service updated theirs while I wrote this post, it was roughly half of what it is now) Here’s how precipitation through Friday Morning looks: National Weather Service 9-23 inches Accuweather 8-20 inches Wunderground 16-25 inches The Wunderground forecast has been […]

 Posted by at 6:15 am

Easily 1 foot, possibly more…

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Easily 1 foot, possibly more…
Jan 042016

ShareI think Flagstaff is easily going to receive a foot of snow this week. I’m not sure I buy the NWS’s forecast for the majority of it showing up at the end of the week. I think there will be two serious rounds of precipitation. First between today and Wednesday. Second, at the opposite end […]

 Posted by at 11:49 am

Month’s precipitation in one week

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Month’s precipitation in one week
Jan 022016

ShareAfter a drier than normal December, El Niño will get 2016 off to a wet start. The average monthly precipitation for Flagstaff in January is about 2 inches. Next week’s outlook from the GFS model at the Climate Prediction Center forecasts that amount to arrive between today and next Saturday. Multiple storm systems will move […]

 Posted by at 8:13 am

Winter hits hard next week.

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Winter hits hard next week.
Dec 282015

ShareDecember has been low on moisture compared to normal, and near normal for the average temperature. Low precipitation in an El Niño December probably is not very unusual. I’ll have to look. But, it all changes in the start of January. A series of storms is due next week. Arizona will get plenty of moisture […]

 Posted by at 3:32 pm
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