Jan 162013
 

The National Weather Service has cut their warming outlook for the next few days. Their current forecast doesn’t have our temperatures rising to normal levels. Currently, their outlook has our highs reaching 43 F, and our lows in single digits. The high is near normal. The normal low is about 16 F. This leaves us 3-5 degrees below normal on the average. Other forecast outlets have our temperatures returning to near normal levels in a couple of days.

While not a record, the last 5 days are the coldest for 22 years. I think we are on our way to the coldest January since the 1980s.  From the National Weather Service -

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/jan15_2013_2.jpg

 

 Posted by at 7:09 am
Jan 152013
 

It has been unusually cold, but it has been colder. The conversion point between above average to below average temperatures happened after the first week of December. A turn around is ahead.

Departure from normal temperatures(blue) and cumulative departure(orange) for December and January.Departure from normal temperatures and cumulative departure for December and January.

Departure from normal temperatures and cumulative departure for December and January.

The last couple days have been the coldest. But this is the deepest part of the could. After today, the forecast is for temperatures to return to near normal levels. If we stay near normal for the rest of the month, we will end up 4.5-5 degrees below normal for the month. This is significant, but I doubt it will be a record breaker.

Over night lows will remain very cold below 20 degrees. Moisture will be scarce to non-existent for the rest of the month. Clear night skies will continue to hold the overnight temperatures to low levels. It’s going to be very dry.

 Posted by at 7:01 am
Jan 102013
 

You may have heard that 2012 was the warmest, or one of the warmest on record. Probably not completely accurate, but absolute statements rarely are. But now, we are looking at a very cold January, about 7 degrees below normal so far, and even colder weather on the way for the next week or so. As a result of all this news, I started wondering about looking back into Flagstaff’s long-term temperature trends.

There are two temperature databases I have used to prepare this post. First, I used the 1950 – 2005 temperature database for the Flagstaff Airport from the Western Regional Climate Center. If you ever wonder about an Arizona location’s climate data, give their site a glance. Second, I used the Preliminary Monthly Climate Report from the National Weather Service’s Flagstaff Climate page. However, you will notice that this database only goes back to 2008. I have downloaded and recorded their data back to 2004. For 2004 and 2005, the databases are closely matched.

I looked at the annual average temperature from both datasets. Here is the resulting graph.

Flagstaff's average annual temperatures for 1950 to 2012

Flagstaff’s average annual temperatures for 1950 to 2012. See text of article for data sources.

First, 2012 wasn’t the warmest year during this time. It’s the fourth warmest according to these temperature records. When I look at this data, it seems that the temperature trend for the last 20 years have been fairly constant. Also, the first 20 years of this record seem fairly constant. I applied a 3rd degree polynomial trend line to this data using Microsoft Excel’s function. This produces an interesting result.

 

Flagstaff's average annual temperatures for 1950 to 2012 with trendline


Flagstaff’s average annual temperatures for 1950 to 2012 with trendline

How are Januaries trending compared to the annual numbers? They look very similar to the annual temperatures.

 

Flagstaff's average annual and January temperatures for 1950 to 2012 with trendline

Flagstaff’s average annual and January temperatures for 1950 to 2012 with trendline 

The year to year variability is roughly on the same scale as any long-term trend. In the past, I have written about the concerns that many solar science experts have about the current and future solar cycles. The current cycle has had a lower than expected level of activity and a much decrease. Predictions for the next two cycles are for weaker conditions. This could result in a 30-50 year cooling trend for everyone, including us. Which will win, anthropogenic global warming or a cold star?

Looks more and more like we could get more than a couple of inches of snow over the next few days. It will be windy and much cooler. If you need to do anything outdoors, do it today.

 Posted by at 8:33 am
Jan 082013
 

somewhat. A storm system will move across Northern Arizona on Thursday night into Friday. Here is the Weather Story image from the National Weather Service:

Weather Story from National Weather Service - Flagstaff. December 8, 2013

Weather Story from National Weather Service – Flagstaff. December 8, 2013

I don’t agree with the 3-7 inches of snowfall by Friday night. I guess it’s possible, but I doubt we will see more than 2 inches. Two things are probably fairly certain. It will be cold, continuing our long-term below average temperatures. (But 2012 was warm overall. Try to remember the warm times.)  It will be windy. To me, wind in the winter means dry.

 Posted by at 1:07 pm
Dec 242012
 

The best few rounds of storms passing by aren’t drawing up as much moisture as the ones last week. We won’t see much snow from today’s storm. Be safe and have a Merry Christmas.

 Posted by at 6:44 am
Dec 182012
 

Let’s deal with today very quickly. It’s going to snow tonight. Once again, there is a chance it will start around rush hour in Flagstaff. We will get 3-8 inches. Altitude will play an important role as to how much different spots receive. Today’s weather story, from the National Weather Service, nicely maps the situation.

Weather Story from National Weather Service, 12-18-2012

Weather Story from National Weather Service, 12-18-2012

More importantly, We are on track for a real WHITE CHRISTMAS!!! It’s a long ways out, and the NoGAPs model doesn’t agree, but it has consistently been in the AccuWeather, Intellicast and Wunderground forecasts, the GFS model and the GEFS model. Christmas is still a week away, but 4-8 inches could become a reality.

GFS 48-hour precipitation model ending 5pm, December 25, 2012

GFS 48-hour precipitation model ending 5pm, December 25, 2012

 Posted by at 6:54 am
Dec 172012
 

Tuesday night we will receive another round of snow. This next storm will move past us more quickly and drop only 4-8 (maybe fewer) inches of fresh snow. The real news is that a stronger storm may hit us on Christmas Eve through Christmas Day. While far out in the future, most models include this in their forecast. However, I think the models often change on Monday afternoons when the meteorologists have had the day to add their tweaks to the forecast models. Keep your fingers crossed.

 Posted by at 6:50 am
Dec 152012
 

If you read yesterday’s blog, today’s winter storm warning (shown below) shouldn’t be a big surprise… I don’t understand why we only had a winter weather advisory yesterday. So, what are all the definitions of the winter advisories and warnings? Here they are:

Winter Storm Warning: Issued when hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet is imminent or occurring. Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued 12 to 24 hours before the event is expected to begin.

Winter Storm Watch: Alerts the public to the possibility of a blizzard, heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter Storm Watches are usually issued 12 to 48 hours before the beginning of a Winter Storm.

Winter Storm Outlook: Issued prior to a Winter Storm Watch. The Outlook is given when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible and are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm.

Winter Weather Advisories: Issued for accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet which will cause significant inconveniences and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to life-threatening situations.

Snow Flurries: Light snow falling for short durations. No accumulation or light dusting is all that is expected.

Snow Showers: Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible.

Snow Squalls: Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. Snow squalls are best known in the Great Lakes region.

Blowing Snow: Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility and causes significant drifting. Blowing snow may be snow that is falling and/or loose snow on the ground picked up by the wind.

I remember that these definitions had snowfall amounts in the past. These are more about the impact of a storm that the amount of snow expected. Enjoy the snow. Another, lighter round is due on Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
414 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2012

AZZ015-016-018-151915-
/O.UPG.KFGZ.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-121216T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WS.W.0002.121215T1114Z-121216T0100Z/
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLAGSTAFF...WILLIAMS...MUNDS PARK...
HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG
414 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 5000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
  TODAY...AND BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE CONSISTENT BY LATE MORNING
  AND AFTERNOON.

* ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET...8 TO
  12 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14
  INCHES MAY BE FOUND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
  SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL
  MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES. DRIVING WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. IF POSSIBLE...POSTPONE
TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL TAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES THAT INCLUDE WINTER
CLOTHING...FOOD...WATER AND A FLASHLIGHT. TELL FAMILY AND FRIENDS
YOUR TRAVEL ROUTE...THE PLANNED ARRIVAL TIME AT YOUR
DESTINATION...AND THE TYPE AND COLOR OF VEHICLE YOU ARE DRIVING
IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND
CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT
1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT WWW.AZ511.COM.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
 Posted by at 5:41 am
Dec 142012
 

Check out the next 48 hour precipitation forecasts in the high-resolution models. Click on the images to see the full size versionThere’s still more to come.

While there were flurries last night at rush hour, this storm is still just starting up this morning. Looks like I picked the wrong rush hour.

Nested Window Run high resolution forecast model for 48 hour total precipitation (HRW_NMM) - NOAA

Nested Window Run high resolution forecast model for 48 hour total precipitation (HRW_NMM) – NOAA

Nested Window Run high resolution forecast model for 48 hour total precipitation (HRW-ARW) - NOAA

Nested Window Run high resolution forecast model for 48 hour total precipitation (HRW-ARW) – NOAA

 

 Posted by at 6:31 am
Dec 132012
 

Looks like we are in for a slow-moving storm that will bring regular snow over the next few days. The earlier model runs had a major precipitation event for tonight. Now, we are looking a few inches of snow now and then through Saturday. When the storm has passed, we should have a nice blanket of snow that is 7-12 inches deep. I think it will start after sundown tonight, which matches the National Weather Service. The commute tonight could be messy. I think I will blog about the different winter weather notices the NWS uses.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Flagstaff area.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 AM MST THU DEC 13 2012

AZZ015-131830-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WW.Y.0009.121214T0400Z-121214T1900Z/
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FLAGSTAFF
323 AM MST THU DEC 13 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING AND
  WILL BECOME STEADY BY LATE EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
  TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT MST...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
  PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND INTERMITTENT BY FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET... WITH 6 TO
  10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NORTHEAST
  OF FLAGSTAFF. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF AND 16 TO 24 INCHES OVER THE SAN
  FRANCISCO PEAKS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
  CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCED
  VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FALLING
SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

PLAN EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. TAKE
EMERGENCY TRAVEL SUPPLIES INCLUDING WINTER CLOTHING...FOOD...
WATER AND A FLASHLIGHT.

FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB
SITE AT WWW.AZ511.COM.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
 Posted by at 6:28 am
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