Month’s precipitation in one week

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Month’s precipitation in one week
Jan 022016

After a drier than normal December, El Niño will get 2016 off to a wet start. The average monthly precipitation for Flagstaff in January is about 2 inches. Next week’s outlook from the GFS model at the Climate Prediction Center forecasts that amount to arrive between today and next Saturday. Multiple storm systems will move […]

 Posted by at 8:13 am

Winter hits hard next week.

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Winter hits hard next week.
Dec 282015

December has been low on moisture compared to normal, and near normal for the average temperature. Low precipitation in an El Niño December probably is not very unusual. I’ll have to look. But, it all changes in the start of January. A series of storms is due next week. Arizona will get plenty of moisture […]

 Posted by at 3:32 pm

Will Bing’s dream come true?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Will Bing’s dream come true?
Dec 192015

I haven’t seen any forecasts that without a high likelihood of a white Christmas for Flagstaff. As it is often the case, the exact timing and total snowfall amounts are changing in the forecast, but several inches in or around Christmas Day are very likely. The 6-10 precipitation outlook is below. I don’t see a […]

 Posted by at 5:26 am


 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wetterkerze
Dec 142015

Since moving to Germany last summer, I kept hearing stories about a man in Bavaria that could forecast the long-range winter weather with high accuracy. Over lunch last week, I got more of the details. Details that leave me wondering if his forecast method could work in Northern Arizona. I can’t remember anyone mentioning it […]

 Posted by at 4:13 am

Cold temperatures, wet weather…oh yeah, it’s winter time

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Cold temperatures, wet weather…oh yeah, it’s winter time
Dec 072015

2 or 3 storms are on their way to Arizona. The next two weeks will be mostly, seriously, cold with occasional snow. It looks like the storm track is shifting to the south and splitting, as we expect for an El Niño winter. More later… Tweet

 Posted by at 2:48 pm

Dry period in an El Niño Winter

 Outlooks  Comments Off on Dry period in an El Niño Winter
Nov 272015

Thanks to an Eastern Pacific hurricane and very strong northerly storm track, the next couple weeks will be very dry in Arizona. Tweet

 Posted by at 12:25 am

The Blob Vaporizes

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on The Blob Vaporizes
Nov 242015

The sea surface temperature and temperature anomaly animation from the Climate Prediction Center shows 3 interesting features. First, the current strong El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are clear. Second, the North Atlantic cold conditions between the UK and Canada are persisting. Last, the blob off the West Coast is slowly disappearing. Interesting animation. […]

 Posted by at 1:36 pm

Is the GFS model struggling with El Nino and the Blob?

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Is the GFS model struggling with El Nino and the Blob?
Nov 222015

I keep looking at the longer range forecasts, the GFS computer model and the Climate Prediction Center outlooks. It seems like the 6-10 day outlooks have a huge amount of variability. Last weeks snow was never clearly in any of them. One day the 6-10 would be dry. The next day it would be wet. […]

 Posted by at 2:15 am

Record Snow!

 Record  Comments Off on Record Snow!
Nov 052015

Yesterday the Flagstaff Airport reported 9.9 inches of snow which is a record for November 4. The old record was 5 inches in 1925. Also, the amount of water precipitation was a record at 0.71 inches.I think it is interesting that 10 inches of snow in early November is a record. I think it is […]

 Posted by at 12:44 pm

Wet, cold…wintry

 Climate, El Nino/La Nina, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Wet, cold…wintry
Nov 032015

Today will start wet in Northern Arizona. Around night fall, maybe a  bit later, the rain should change to snow and start our El Nino winter. Almost an inch of water could fall from the skies in various forms. As it is often the case for these early winter storms, timing of the switch to […]

 Posted by at 2:57 am
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