Wetterkerze

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wetterkerze
Dec 142015
 

Since moving to Germany last summer, I kept hearing stories about a man in Bavaria that could forecast the long-range winter weather with high accuracy. Over lunch last week, I got more of the details. Details that leave me wondering if his forecast method could work in Northern Arizona. I can’t remember anyone mentioning it […]

 Posted by at 4:13 am

Cold temperatures, wet weather…oh yeah, it’s winter time

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Cold temperatures, wet weather…oh yeah, it’s winter time
Dec 072015
 

2 or 3 storms are on their way to Arizona. The next two weeks will be mostly, seriously, cold with occasional snow. It looks like the storm track is shifting to the south and splitting, as we expect for an El Niño winter. More later… Tweet

 Posted by at 2:48 pm

Dry period in an El Niño Winter

 Outlooks  Comments Off on Dry period in an El Niño Winter
Nov 272015
 

Thanks to an Eastern Pacific hurricane and very strong northerly storm track, the next couple weeks will be very dry in Arizona. Tweet

 Posted by at 12:25 am

The Blob Vaporizes

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on The Blob Vaporizes
Nov 242015
 

The sea surface temperature and temperature anomaly animation from the Climate Prediction Center shows 3 interesting features. First, the current strong El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are clear. Second, the North Atlantic cold conditions between the UK and Canada are persisting. Last, the blob off the West Coast is slowly disappearing. Interesting animation. […]

 Posted by at 1:36 pm

Is the GFS model struggling with El Nino and the Blob?

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Is the GFS model struggling with El Nino and the Blob?
Nov 222015
 

I keep looking at the longer range forecasts, the GFS computer model and the Climate Prediction Center outlooks. It seems like the 6-10 day outlooks have a huge amount of variability. Last weeks snow was never clearly in any of them. One day the 6-10 would be dry. The next day it would be wet. […]

 Posted by at 2:15 am

Record Snow!

 Record  Comments Off on Record Snow!
Nov 052015
 

Yesterday the Flagstaff Airport reported 9.9 inches of snow which is a record for November 4. The old record was 5 inches in 1925. Also, the amount of water precipitation was a record at 0.71 inches.I think it is interesting that 10 inches of snow in early November is a record. I think it is […]

 Posted by at 12:44 pm

Wet, cold…wintry

 Climate, El Nino/La Nina, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Wet, cold…wintry
Nov 032015
 

Today will start wet in Northern Arizona. Around night fall, maybe a  bit later, the rain should change to snow and start our El Nino winter. Almost an inch of water could fall from the skies in various forms. As it is often the case for these early winter storms, timing of the switch to […]

 Posted by at 2:57 am

Is Flagstaff wetter than Munich?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Is Flagstaff wetter than Munich?
Oct 302015
 

My current frame of reference is Munich. It’s been mostly foggy with cool clear nights cause the still relatively warm moist ground to product fog. But, rainfall and first snow have been on my mind. 3.68 inches of rain have fallen in Flagstaff in October. This is more than double the normal amount. Below is […]

 Posted by at 11:29 pm

Comparisons of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Flagstaff Precipitation

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Comparisons of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Flagstaff Precipitation
Oct 242015
 

I continue to be interested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) impact of Flagstaff precipitation. It surprises me that there could be a link between the sea surface water temperatures in the North Atlantic and the rain and snow amounts on the other side of North America, in a desert. I past posts, I have discussed […]

 Posted by at 1:46 am

Missing the October event

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Missing the October event
Oct 202015
 

Yesterday I occasionally watched the weather radar as events emerged across Arizona. I could tell Flagstaff was going to get an early morning wake-up call from Mother Nature. And Mother Nature did not disappoint. I did miss being in Arizona to see it first hand. October storms like this are often some of the most […]

 Posted by at 8:53 pm
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