A wetter than normal summer because of El Nino? Really?

The Arizona Daily Sun published this article over the weekend: Forecasters: Wet Summer and Winter likely in Flagstaff. This article hints at El Nino as the cause for both extra rainfall this summer and more snow next winter. About a month ago I started to look into El Nino’s effects on Flagstaff’s summer precipitation. My [...]

First thoughts on the 2014 monsoon season

With a fire at this time of year, it’s natural to look at the calendar and think about how long until monsoon season, and will it be a good one. The Climate Prediction Center has Flagstaff inside the above normal region for the June-August and the July-September 3-month precipitation outlooks(see below). The current June outlook [...]

Long sabbatical and the fire

I haven’t posted for nearly a month. There are a couple of reasons for this. One is that dry, windy conditions just aren’t that interesting. Their normal for this time of year and we should expect it. Second, I have had a couple of long international trips in the last month. One for business. One [...]

April showers

This weekend will be another cooler, wetter weekend. The precipitation forecast in the North American Mesoscale model shows Flagstaff in the one-half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation zone. This could be the most significant storm in months. We should see mostly unfrozen precipitation, but if temperatures are low enough, some very temporary snow [...]

I’m not sure I agree, but I’ll share it anyway

I noticed the new 3-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. For May, June and July, they are forecasting above average precipitation for the 4-corners region. Flagstaff is at the edge of the “green” zone. The questions I have are about the emerging potential for an El Nino building over the summer. I don’t think [...]

Easter Rain?

Well, a small chance of scatter showers looks pretty good now. But, the reality is that we won’t see much precipitation. For most of the Easter Weekend, we will have clouds and cooler temperatures and occasionally light rain. It’s very dry out there. Tweet

Very warm this morning, more the next few days

I haven’t written much lately. Mostly because our weather continues as mostly unremarkable and harmless. As warm and dry as it has been, we haven’t really set any significant records. This morning, our temperatures are in the mid-40s, roughly 20 degrees above normal. The next few days should have low winds, and plenty of sunshine. [...]

Windy yesterday, chance of an April Fool’s Day storm

The computer models don’t agree and are not even consistent between runs. It looks like an April Fool’s Day joke. Back in 1999, we had a similar experience. Beautiful, above average temperatures and sunshine were in the forecast for April 1. On the afternoon of March 31, it started to snow. I remember because my [...]

All of a sudden, it’s going to rain tomorrow

For the last week or so, the computer models have generated a storm forming to the east of Flagstaff tomorrow. This morning, everything seems to have changed. We are now looking at a nice round of rain and snow for tomorrow. Even though the storm appears pretty strong in the models, the National Weather Service [...]

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