So, I have alluded to questions over the future of the current El Nino. There are two seriously differing camps. Unfortunately, it is falling along the hard core lines of human caused global warming(HCGW) believers and those that question human caused global warming. Jim Hansen, of NASA, is committed to Human Caused Global Warming. Given the significant cooling that has occurred since roughly 2001, he needs a big win, like another 1997-1998 Super El Nino.
As I mentioned over the weekend, a moderate El Nino is in place, with some holes. Those that question HCGW are pointing out that the future of this El Nino appears to be weaker with an early demise. Compared to the Super El Nino, the differences are large. Here is an excellent blog I recommend you read: JPL’s Patzert: “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists”
Neither camp did great with the summer prediction, other than the questioners favoring a cool summer in the Eastern US. Time will tell.
I think this winter will be similar to the last few. If we have heavy snow fall, it will stick around for a long time. We will probably end up with average snowfall, overall. The sun will recover some, but will not return to the intensity of the last couple cycles. Those are my thoughts.
One last note; did you notice there is now more sea ice area in the Artic than this date in 2005?