Dec 292017
 
12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)
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As if to make my point from my last post, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center now have a significant shift in the precipitation outlook. In other words, in a bit more than a week, precipitation could fall.

Precipitation outlooks, 6-10 and 8-14 day, from the Climate Prediction Center on December 29, 2017.

Precipitation outlooks, 6-10 and 8-14 day, from the Climate Prediction Center on December 29, 2017.

This could make sense. The recent move of cold air to the eastern US is a big shift in pressure systems. The current outlook also has it staying in place, more or less, during this time frame. This could be the kick in the pants needed. However, this would also keep warm temperatures in Arizona. Which leads to a bit of a problem.

12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)

12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)

The GFS model is showing rain, not snow. These outlooks have been very unreliable for the last month. I continue to have a dubious view of long range outlooks during holiday times. On the other hand, the US Navy’s NAVGEM (NoGaps) model also shows the high pressure breaking down at the end of next week, potentially opening the storm door. The alignment of the two models is promising.

I feel like this post is a roller coaster. Kinda like the long-range outlooks.

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