Nov 262017
 
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Probably, and yes.

Hello everyone. Sorry for the long break between posts. As previously, I’ve been occupied with being in Europe. More on that some other time.

I have been watching the development of the winter. I typically become more fixated on winter storms, and not so much on winter droughts.

This winter is a La Nina winter. Colder than normal waters have built along the equator in the Pacific, from South America to the west. This usually means a warm, dry winter for Arizona, as the storm track keeps farther to the north.

Currently, the computer models have been showing this might breakdown in early December. How ever, there are two caveats I would put forward. First, these models have been run over the long, holiday weekend. Second, the storm track is widely varying between computer model runs. This makes for a doubtful outlook.

If you go with this morning’s outlook, Flagstaff could receive 6-12 inches of snow sometime around December 4. This could still be a warm storm with rain and other mixed precipitation. By December 4, I will be in Munich. In Munich, the weather outlook is much the same, but darker, with a low hanging sun and a full hour less sunlight.

Total snowfall through 6 December, 2017. (From the GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits)

Total snowfall through 6 December, 2017. (From the GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits)

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