Aug 062017
 
8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from 4 August, 2017.
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I did check on dictionary.com. At that site, Julys or Julies are both deemed correct. However, as I type in the WordPress editor, Julys has a red dotted line under it. Well, anyway, I’ll use Julies since that will create the most confusion. Four of the last 8 have been more than one standard deviation above the average rainfall for July going back to 1950. This is one of many indicators that Flagstaff continues to climb out of the drought of the late 1990s through roughly 2010. For instance, Lake Powell’s current water level is at its third highest in the last 10 years.

With 4.48 inches falling last month, that brings the water year (September through August) to 22.9 inches and the calendar year to date to 14.29 inches. Both are above average compared to 18.75 and 11.08 inches. The average July precipitation, according to the National Weather Service, is 2.61 inches. Rainlog.org has a new format, but their map confirms fairly high reported precipitation.

It was also a warm July. Not outside of one standard deviation on the temperature record going back to 1950, but slightly warmer (67.5F versus 66.24). It made me wonder if there was a trend of wetter Julies being warmer, too. Looking back through 1950, 19 of the wet Julies were also warmer than average. There were 30 wetter than average Julies and 40 warmer than average Julies. Maybe a trend of wet Julies being warmer, but it’s not guaranteed. I don’t think you can say much a warm Julies.

And now, a pause. The outlook for most of the next two weeks shows a drying trend with above average temperatures. More interesting is that the middle of the United States will see seriously below average temperatures. Enjoy the warm dry conditions while you have them.

6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from August 4, 2017.

6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from August 4, 2017.

 

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from 4 August, 2017.

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center from 4 August, 2017.

 

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