Feb 242017
 
US Navy NAVGEM computer model forecast of precipitation rate for Monday night, February 27, 2017. (from Tropical Tidbits)
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Maybe one computer has made up it’s mind. The Navy computer model is predicting a wet end to the February on a consistent basis. NOAA’s GFS model is not repeatably predicting anything. On Friday, two runs of the GFS model shows very light precipitation through the end of the month. Then, there were two other runs that showed over an inch of water coming to the Flagstaff are by the end of the month. Given the recent misses in forecast heavy rain or snow for Arizona, I am doubtful we will see a big storm for the start of next week.

If the most recent runs are accurate, there could be significant snowfall by next Wednesday. A little snow or rain could fall during the day on Sunday. Then, Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, Flagstaff could receive 8-12 inches of snow. So, be ready.

February has been warm and dry. It probably won’t be the warmest or driest since 1950, but it will be in the top 5 warm Februaries since 1950. If the precipitation comes through, there is still a chance to be at the average for the month. I’m doubtful.

US Navy NAVGEM computer model forecast of precipitation rate for Monday night, February 27, 2017. (from Tropical Tidbits)

US Navy NAVGEM computer model forecast of precipitation rate for Monday night, February 27, 2017. (from Tropical Tidbits)

 

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