Sep 252015
 
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In the last two months, the Climate Prediction Center has not been very accurate with their 1-month precipitation outlooks. July and August precipitation amounts were close to average. September’s precipitation amount is running well below average. On the other hand, they we right about April, May and June. The long-range outlooks continue to show a strong, El Niño winter.

They have now released an Experimental 3-4 week Outlook. This was a gap in their forecasting portfolio. On their home page, They had outlooks for 6-10 days, 8-14 days, 1 month, 3 months, Hazards and Drought. Below is the current 3-4 week precipitation outlook.

Precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 4 in the future from the Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 4 in the future from the Climate Prediction Center.

Looks very wet. However, in their discussion they state:

Following ensemble prediction system forecasts from the CFS, ECMWF and JMA, the forecast for the week 3 and 4 period favors above-median precipitation for the Southwest region extending eastward across Texas into parts of Louisiana. This is somewhat consistent with statistical forecasts based on El Niño, however this tool does not appear to have great skill for precipitation forecasts under El Niño conditions at this time of year, indicating the probable influence of additional climate variability on the precipitation pattern.

So, we will have to wait and see. I think late September through November are the toughest months for forecasting Northern Arizona’s weather.

It appears the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and the related Pacific Blob are going away. Deep details are at The California Weather Blog. The Ridge created the Blob, which reinforced the Ridge, which reinforced the blob, and so on. The ridge is breaking down. The Blob should also disappear over the winter. This is very good news for California and may help reinforce a strong El Niño winter for Arizona.

One last thought, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is continuing to look like it has shifted. This could be a strong long-term signal for wetter conditions in Arizona.

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