Last week, the Climate Prediction Center published new outlook maps. These point to a strong finish for the monsoon season and a wet winter. While these aren’t changes to expectations, I thought they are reviewing. First the current 30-day and 90-day outlooks show the strong finish to the monsoon season.
Arizona is deep inside the highest probability region for greater and average precipitation for both time frames. I don’t think this monsoon season will be a record breaker, but it should finish strong. The other positive to note is the green zone creeping into California.
For fun, I made animated gif of the other 3-month outlooks through next spring. You can see that until the Mrach-April-May 2016 map, Arizona is firmly in the green zone. Still, this is strongly based on the El Nino conditions we have in the Pacific. We still aren’t clear about how the Pacific Blob and the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge will affect things.