Jan 212015
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More and more, people ask me this question. The answer has several parts. While one event stands out, there are other contributing factors. Many of the reasons for starting this blog are personal. Let’s go back to the spring of 1999.

Saturday, March 27, 1999 was a beautiful day. Sunny, light winds and warm temperatures led me to work outside all day. The week before had been just as beautiful. The forecast was for it to continue. It was so nice and warm, my family planned to go to Lake Powell the following weekend, very early in the season.

On Wednesday evening of that week, we purchased a used Ford Bronco. The forecast was still for continued beautiful weather. As we signed the documents, it started to snow. There had been no snow in the forecast. Yet, there is was. Thursday brought 8-12 inches of snow for many locations. It snowed several more inches on Friday. Again, it snowed on Saturday. We got another 8 or so inches on Sunday. As the skies cleared, the temperatures dropped to the single digits in many local areas. This had been a severe and completely unexpected winter storm.

This storm perplexed me. How, in our modern age, was it possible for the experts to have missed such a whopper storm? We had supercomputers running forecast models to project the future weather. Supercomputers! These were the same computers that calculated high-resolution models of nuclear explosions. How could they miss?

I thought I would start to record my thoughts in a blog. I started writing my thoughts down on an AOL blog. That blog and those ramblings are long gone. That effort was more of a notepad. I shared blog with just a couple of people who knew I was watching and thinking about the weather. I’m not sure exactly when I started that blog. Over the years, I enjoyed hearing from people who were reading the AOL based-blog because someone else shared it with them.

End of part 1.


Next week looks particularly disturbed. The forecasts are pointing to a storm later in the week. But, the computer models point to an early week storm. Standby, it could be a big one. Today we have light snow and rain for the morning.

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