Over the last week or so, the GFS models have had a snow drifting in and out of the forecast for tomorrow. Currently, snow is back in the forecast for tomorrow, along with cooler temperatures. But, the storm is coming down from the north. This is not a typical storm pattern, and is very different from the storm track that kept us wet at the start of December. We shouldn’t receive much Christmas snow, but temperatures are going to plummet from our balmy 50+ degree highs today.
I think the current storm track makes the 30-day and 3-month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center seem odd. The current track is fairly dry. It’s not drawing on the moisture that the warm equatorial Pacific waters should provide. Still, the outlooks have above average moisture for the next 3 months.
We should not expect a significant El Nino for this winter, too. The shift in the winds at the equator is not yet sustained. There is still warm water down off the coast of Peru, but it needs the winds to shift to sustain it.