I’ve struggled the last few days with a broken internet connection, malfunctioning iPhone and a rainy weekend. The weekend struggle was the wonderful malaise that can hit Arizonans when it rains all day. Nonetheless, the Climate Prediction Center issued new outlooks for October and the 3-month period October to December.
The outlooks point to El Nino developing. I’m still not sure this is a reasonable expectation. Last spring and early summer, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator appeared headed for a strong El Nino. Unfortunately, the trade-winds did not shift to support it and the sea surface temperatures fell. There is another burst of warm water headed towards Peru now. If the winds shift, we will have El Nino conditions and a high likelihood of a wet winter. If they don’t shift, we will see La Nada neutral conditions(I think this is what will happen). Here is NOAA’s narrative about the outlooks:
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WITH THE LIKELY TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN AND WINTER. A WEAK EL NINO EVENT IS MOST PROBABLE, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF EITHER A MODERATE EVENT OR CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO WINTER. A STRONG EL NINO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS YEAR. MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION (170W TO 120W LONGITUDE AND 5S TO 5N LATITUDE) INDICATE A WEAK EL NINO (+0.5C TO +0.9C) WITH PEAK ANOMALIES IN THE EARLY WINTER.
Here are the outlooks: