Last night we saw the first part of a wet week. This week, we should be inside the monsoonal flow. And, I think there is plenty of warm water to support an ongoing rainy season. The Pacific Coast of North American, all the way down to Central America is quite warm compared to normal. This can help with moisture supply to the Southwest.
Although the equatorial waters west of Peru seem warm, they have actually dropped. It still doesn’t look like the wind shift needed to support El Nino will happen. Stay tuned.