With a fire at this time of year, it’s natural to look at the calendar and think about how long until monsoon season, and will it be a good one. The Climate Prediction Center has Flagstaff inside the above normal region for the June-August and the July-September 3-month precipitation outlooks(see below). The current June outlook has us at even chances for normal precipitation.
A particularly interesting part of the monsoon season is Eastern Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms. These can bring exceptional moisture to Arizona. Hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific start on May 15th. Hurricanes do not usually form in May in this region, but they can. If they do form, they usually wander around the coast of Southern Mexico or drift straight out to the west. This year, we have our first storm, Hurricane Amanda. The computer models show Amanda moving up the West Coast and bringing moisture to Arizona by late in the week. It is still 5-7 days out, but it could at least help keep our temperatures lower and out humidity higher for a while.
One last note: The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch. The current outlooks show a strengthening El Nino that could be quite strong for next year. My current question is whether this could derail our monsoon season.