Feb 052014
 
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UPDATED: 5:45pm AZ time – See below

The Weather service is being clear about their expectations for the end of the week. On their forecast, they have Thursday night as the period with the heaviest precipitation. This is their Weather Story for today.

Snowfall outlook for the rest of the week, from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

Snowfall outlook for the rest of the week, from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

But the North American Mesoscale(NAM) model has us drawing a blank for the next few days. The lower resolution GFS model shows a situation similar to the Weather Story above. Aaarrrggghhh!

2-5 Inches is probably a good guess. At this point, 4-8 seems like a stretch. The computer models are often and by large amounts. We’ll see. It’s possible the next few days could be just like the last few.

UPDATE – So, just to make the point…. The NAM model has shifted tonight. We are back in the 3-8 inch range for snowfall amounts between now and midday Friday. All I can say is “Be ready.” It will probably snow. We may receive a decent amount.

North American Mesoscale Model forecast for precipitation between Wendesday evening and midday Friday. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

North American Mesoscale Model forecast for precipitation between Wendesday evening and midday Friday. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

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