Jan 072014
 
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Teams without a clear mission will often become lazy. Bloggers without clear computer models will often become lazy.

I taunted everyone last Friday with a potential storm for the end of this week. Each time I check the computer models that I rely on, I see something different. This morning, we are back in the highly unlikely mode. Last night, things were looking highly likely mode. The outlook just keeps bouncing around.

I think these the occurrence of a cut-off low in our area is causing these changes. These are very difficult to predict. Occurrence, timing and amounts seems to fool the computers. I believe it is one of the last big challenges for our computer models.

So, let’s look at some nonsensical, but often very accurate, reliable indicators.

  • I drove my white car back from Phoenix to Flagstaff yesterday. My white car is rear wheel drive. So, I don’t like it to drive it in the snow. I plan to drive it back to Phoenix on Thursday or Friday. This is an indicator for some snow. A couple of inches at least.
  • My friend Nicky S. from the UK called me yesterday to let me know she will be in town. She will drive to Flagstaff on Thursday. This is normally a strong indicator for snow. Unfortunately, she rented a 4-wheel drive car. This is a detractor. Fortunately, Nicky has a good heart and wants to ski this weekend. In the balance, I figure that is worth  a few inches in town and more on the mountain.
  • I believe I will wash one of my cars tonight or tomorrow. Another great way to make it snow.

If everyone does their part and washes their car, which is still dirty from the last storm, this will have a profound effect. Either you will proudly drive your clean car around town this weekend, or you will watch it get dirty with snow on Thursday and Friday. Either way, it’s a win. I urge everyone to avoid activities like stocking up on wood near your fireplace or wood stove. These activities would cut the chances of snow.

 

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