Aug 232013
 
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It’s now called Tropical Depression 9-E. It’s heading our way. For the month to date based on the 1981-2010 average, we are roughly 1 inch behind normal precipitation at the Flagstaff Airport. Looking at the North American Mesoscale Model run from this morning, we could make it up between now and Monday afternoon thanks to the bounty of this depression. I think this model has Flagstaff in the 1-1.25 inch region.

84-hour precipitation forecast of the North American Mesoscale Model from the National Center for Environmental Prediction

84-hour precipitation forecast of the North American Mesoscale Model from the National Center for Environmental Prediction

Looking at the NOAA Graphical Forecast through Sunday evening, the National Weather Service is forecasting about 1.25 inches of rain. This is a considerable amount of water. Flooding could be an issue.

I’m always concerned with systems like this that the moisture ends up going through Arizona, but storms don’t form and we don’t get the rain.

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