MN asked me a couple of times last week why I wasn’t logging my rain at Rainlog.org. I had been, but even with all the cloudiness last week, I received very little precipitation.
Today, much like a day or two last week, the forecast models and various forecasters are saying were have a high likelihood of thunderstorms with lots of precipitation. There is a nice amount of moisture in the air…actually, the air feels soaking wet. There are even a few lingering storms wandering about Arizona this morning. The problem is that for anything to get started in earnest, we need lift. We need a temperature differential. Or, some winds to cause lift over out mountains.
Last week, there was a persistent storm that formed from orographic lift over the peaks. From the Peaks northward, there was rain. Most of the rest of Northern Arizona saw little to no rain. The problem that day, and I think again today, is that while moisture was abundant, the sun was barely seen. Without warming of the surface air, it doesn’t start to lift due to its buoyancy. Hence, we see no condensation into cumulus and then cumulonimbus clouds.
It doesn’t look like we will have a strong front moving through, and unless things clear up, I don’t know what will drive anything significant today.