Jun 272013
 
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The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning at elevations below 4000 feet. Here is the official definition:

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
 HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A
 DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK
 PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM IF POSSIBLE...
 STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

I think an “Excessive Heat Warning” is when TR sends you an IM telling you “it’s going to be really hot.” He’s right. The forecast for the next few days is hot. But, this is the time of year when it is hot.

Another friend of mine, JW always says it has to get hot for the monsoon season to really start. There is a linkage between the heat and the start of the summer rainy season. The heating in the deep southwest, especially around Yuma, forms a thermal low pressure zone. The counterclockwise flow around this low helps drive the moisture up from the south. More on this at my Monsoon Mechanics webpage.

I feel like the recent National Weather Service forecasts have overshot the temperatures we have actually seen. But, for the next few days, starting today, the record high temperatures are 96, 94, 94, 93, 92, 91, 92, 93, 96, 97, 96. I’m pretty sure the 97 is our all time record high and was in 1973. A few of those were in 1974 and a couple in 2007. So, the forecast definitely has us in the record range.  I’ll try to talk about the high temperatures after we get to the rains.

The start of the monsoon season continues to too wet. This particular outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has enthralled me. This is the drought outlook. Check out our area. This outlook has parts of Arizona coming out of drought by the end of the summer. Amazing! The North American Mesoscale model has showers starting tomorrow in Northern Arizona. This seems a bit early to me.

United States Seasonal Drought Outlook

United States Seasonal Drought Outlook

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