Jan 302013
 
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In a rare event for this year, both the GFS model from NOAA and the NoGAPS model from the US Navy have aligned around a strong storm moving across Arizona next Tuesday. For a 6-7 day time point, they haven’t been very well aligned this winter.

Here is the NoGAPS model for 6 hours of precipitation ending next Wednesday morning. It shows about 3/4 of an inch of water.

US Navy NoGAPs precipitation model for 6 hours, ending Wednesday morning, February 6, 2013

US Navy NoGAPs precipitation model for 6 hours, ending Wednesday morning, February 6, 2013

Here is the NOAA GFS model for 24 hours ending Tuesday evening.

NOAA GFS model for 24 hour precipitation, ending Tuesday evening, February 5, 2013

NOAA GFS model for 24 hour precipitation, ending Tuesday evening, February 5, 2013

This model show over 3/4 of an inch of water, too. The timing is off by a few hours in each model. This weekend, we will see only a weak storm. Next week, we will see wetter conditions.I’m still not sure if we will get rain or snow.

 

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