So, I am trending my forecast from several inches to a lot. I think 7-12 inches is possible with this storm. Interstate 17, and lots of other roads, will be a mess. Currently, I think it will start around 9pm Thursday night, but my fear is that we could have one of those rush-hour storms that starts as the sun is low in the sky. Oddly, the National Weather Service has not issued any warnings or watches for our area at this time. Check the daily Weather Story in the right side-bar of this webpage. If I see one, I will append it to this post or a future post.
I looked at the sea surface temperatures this morning when it became clearer that the moisture supply was to the south, not the southwest, like Hawaii. The waters to the south, and the southwest, have warmed recently. Our recent cooling in Arizona will help bring the moisture to us.