Dec 022012
 

Not the Model-T, but my very own weather forecasting model. Some of you may remember the intense accuracy it provided years ago. It just seems to work.Since I don’t have a super computer and years of training and education on developing models for predicting weather, the model has a lot of manual tweaks in it to get it to give decent output. I spend a considerable amount of time just figuring out the inputs and boundary conditions to make it work.

The GFS and NoGAPS models have output similar results to mine for this next week. But the results are inconsistent, run after run. So, I thought it was time to give my model a try. Here is the output. While not definitive and with some variability, my experience points to a reasonable likelihood of some snowfall this week. Unless you are me, you are probably silly to use my model. I would stick with the pros, but I feel pretty good about my historic knowledge. There is a good chance of snow this week. My forecast doesn’t match anything else out there.

Stu's T-model output for the week of december 2, 2012

Stu’s T-model output for the week of december 2, 2012

If you are a serious meteorologist, you should express no interest in the details of how I work this thing, but you can still send me an email (stu@stu-in-flag.net) and ask. It is a curiosity.

 

Stu

 Posted by at 6:52 am

  One Response to “Have to break out the T-model”

  1. […] added a 10% chance of showers on Thursday. Maybe they understand the power of the T-model. See my post from yesterday below this post. Or, more likely, Their super computers chucked out something. NWS agrees with […]

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