Sep 252012
 

An El Nino had built all summer in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Last week the 3 Month Outlook at the Climate Prediction  Center was update to forecast normal condition for the next 3 months. The outlook had been for above normal conditions.

3-month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

3-month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

I started to wonder about the cause of the change. Then I saw a post from Dr. Bob Tisdale at the University of Alabama: Hey, Where’d El Nino Go?

I toook a look at the update Pacific temperatures and anomalies graph at the Climate Prediction Center. As you can see in the graph below, El Nino had been persistent until recently. In the last few frames of the animation below, the El Nino pattern dissipates, but a warm area near Central America is left behind.

Global sea surface temperatures and anomalies - Climate Prediction Center

Global sea surface temperatures and anomalies – Climate Prediction Center

At this point, it looks like we have seen an unusual early demise of an El Nino. Maybe the warm water off the coast of Central America will be a good moisture supply for this winter. I don’t know.

 

Stu

 Posted by at 6:51 am

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