First of all, I am sticking to my outlook for the weekend. Look below at Friday’s post for that.
My original outlook for this fall and winter were for them to look more like the fall and winter of 2010-2011. So far, I don’t think that is the case. From a precipitation point of view, this fall has been fairly wet. This looks more similar to 2008 than last year.
2009 and 2010 both have dry falls and then precipitation took off in December. 2008 and this year had a steady progression of storms. What is odd to me is that 2008 was a strong El Nino year. This year is a weak La Nina year with the Pacific Ocean being generally colder that average. Also, the Atlantic is colder. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was negative for the first November since the 1970’s. The cold ocean temperatures could explain our temperatures.
This is a graph of shows the summation of the daily departures from normal. Another way I could have done this is to add the heating degree days and cooling degree days. This seemed more straight-forward. Effectively, this is a running total of hot/cold variance compared to the climatological norms. Here we see 2011 seem more similar to 2009. We have had nice swaths of above and below average temperatures this fall. Most recently, Thanksgiving was well above normal temperatures, but bracketed by very cold periods. Since September 1, we are well below normal.
It’s funny to see the continued long-range outlook for our part of the world shows near normal temperatures, but dry conditions. Will it all change? Or, will we continue to see cold, wet conditions?