Dec 122011
 
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From sometime this afternoon through Wednesday morning, we will get significant snowfall across Northern Arizona. I don’t think we will see heavy snowfall rates. At most we will see 3-4 inches over 6 hours peaking on Tuesday morning. The Navy’s NoGAPS model forecasts greater precipitation than NOAA’s GFS or NAM models. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Flagstaff area.

US Navy NoGAPS precipitation forecast model for 6 hour precipitation ending noon Tuesday.

US Navy NoGAPS precipitation forecast model for 6 hour precipitation ending noon Tuesday.

There is another chance for more snow later this week, but the forecast models have not been consistent. Significantly below average temperatures will continue, too. Get used to the low temperatures, they are here to stay. More on that this week sometime.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
359 AM MST MON DEC 12 2011

...A POTENT WINTER STORM EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA...AND 6500
FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

AZZ008-015-038-121900-
/O.UPG.KFGZ.WS.A.0004.111213T0000Z-111214T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WS.W.0005.111213T0000Z-111214T1200Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FLAGSTAFF
359 AM MST MON DEC 12 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

* TIMING: EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY TODAY AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST TO
  BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 6500 FEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING OF 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER
  AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS: EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO
  DEVELOP. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH ICY
  ROADS...POOR VISIBILITY...BLOWING SNOW...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
  TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES. DRIVING WILL BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. IF POSSIBLE...POSTPONE
TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL TAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES THAT INCLUDE WINTER
CLOTHING...FOOD...WATER AND A FLASHLIGHT. TELL FAMILY AND FRIENDS
YOUR TRAVEL ROUTE...THE PLANNED ARRIVAL TIME AT YOUR
DESTINATION...AND THE TYPE AND COLOR OF VEHICLE YOU ARE DRIVING
IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND
CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT
1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT WWW.AZ511.COM.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
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