I think we should start with a review of last October’s record tornado event.
This was a massive event. The National Weather Service did an outstanding analysis of the event. Please take a look.
This fall isn’t much different. The last two storms have been fairly wet and quite violent. The September storm had tornado activity associated with it.
This year and last year will probably be very similar. La Nina is building cold water in the Pacific. Although the Sun is displaying stronger activity this year, it is still far below what it has been in the past. Global temperatures are lower than most of the last few years.
I think that colder temperatures could lead to stronger storms systems and better precipitation chances for Northern Arizona.
Last winter had ebbs and flows of temperatures and precipitation. I think we will see a similar pattern this year. Overall, I think we will end up slightly short on precipitation, slightly warmer than average. We could see big, cold, record-breaking storms from time to time.