Sep 262011

The storm on September 14, 2011, two days after our significant hail event in Flagstaff, brought a tornado to the Peaks. Here is an image from the National Weather Service.

Arizona Snowbowl Tornado - National Weather Service

Arizona Snowbowl Tornado - National Weather Service

The NWS in Flagstaff has done a great job in recent history with their documentation of major events like this. Very nice work!

This week we should see awesome weather! Simply beautiful. Sunny, warm days and cool comfortable nights are in store. But, a significant change is still lurking for the weekend. Hurricane Hilary is current off the coast of Mexico. The National Weather Service and AccuWeather are both forecasting Hilary to run up the Baja Coast and bring cooler temperatures and elevated chances for rain this weekend for most of the state. However, I am still not sure it will happen. this morning only the GFS model shows this track. Other models show Hilary drifting about and fading into obscurity.

Summary of computer models from Weather

Summary of computer models from Weather

So, this weekend could be cold and wet, or it could be like the rest of the week. One particular point, the GFS model has shown the same behavior for the last week or so. Another particular point is that the NoGAPS model has shown a similar drifting track since Hilary first came into it’s time window. Keep an eye out. I’m going to close the windows on my roof this week.


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