Sep 202011
 
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We are in that fall transition time. The jet stream is moving farther south from its summer hiding place up in the north. The monsoonal flow is dissipating. The temperatures have fallen. MN in the Cheshire area reported freezing temperatures over the weekend, but most of the area remained in the 40s. Of course, higher elevations would have been colder.

Storm systems will continue to grow in their dominance of the weather pattern. However, we have a weak flow from the south projected for this weekend. I doubt we are going to see much precipitation from this pattern. If we look beyond the weekend, a tropical system has been in most of the GFS model projections. In the model, the systems follows a fairly typical fall storm path way. It basically follows the Baja Peninsula and the Sea of Cortez. It then flows into the western half of Arizona. The 48 hour rainfall totals for much of western Arizona is around 1 inch. It’s still a long ways out, early October, but it could bring more rain and cooler temperatures.

48 hour GFS precipitation model for October 2, 2011

48 hour GFS precipitation model for October 2, 2011

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