Looks like we are going to remain below normal temperature through the middle of the month, and mostly dry. Right now, the storm track has moved well to the north and will mostly stay there. A stray low pressure system with little moisture will move through Arizona on Friday and Saturday, but we will probably not get much out of it.
It looks like the middle of the month might be the earliest point we could see a significant change. At first we could have some warming. But, this could be quickly followed by the cold storm track moving south again. This is around the time the AO will hit another negative peak.