Well, here is my T-Model outlook for Friday to Thursday, December 5-11.
This is a very novel and proprietary model. The key to it is my confidential set of inputs.
Given the inputs to the T-model, and current NOGAPS and NOAA computer models, it looks like there could be a good chance for a cut-off low pressure system to form off the coast of California next week and move over Northern Arizona. This could be a significant storm. However, cut-of low pressure systems are notoriously difficult to forecast.
On another note, if you read the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service, you should look for the discussion provided by Peterson. Here is one from this morning:
000 FXUS65 KFGZ 301028 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 AM MST TUE NOV 30 2010 .SYNOPSIS...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR TRAPPED OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY WEDNESDAY...THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL HINTING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM BEING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO LOW POPS AND MODEST COOLING ARE ALL WE CAN REALLY GO WITH FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLG AND KGCN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ PUBLIC...........PETERSON