Nov 302010
 
Share on Facebook0Share on Google+0Pin on Pinterest0Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn0Email this to someoneShare

Well, here is my T-Model outlook for Friday to Thursday, December 5-11.

This is a very novel and proprietary model. The key to it is my confidential set of inputs.

Stu T-Model for precipitation probably, December 5-11, 2010

Stu T-Model for precipitation probably, December 5-11, 2010

Given the inputs to the T-model, and current NOGAPS and NOAA computer models, it looks like there could be a good chance for a cut-off low pressure system to form off the coast of California next week and move over Northern Arizona. This could be a significant storm. However, cut-of low pressure systems are notoriously difficult to forecast.

On another note, if you read the Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service, you should look for the discussion provided by Peterson. Here is one from this morning:

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301028
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE NOV 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR TRAPPED OVER
MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS...COMBINED WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE
DAY...WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY...THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL HINTING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM BEING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO LOW POPS AND MODEST COOLING ARE ALL WE
CAN REALLY GO WITH FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND WINDS
GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AT KFLG AND KGCN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC...........PETERSON
Share on Facebook0Share on Google+0Pin on Pinterest0Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn0Email this to someoneShare

[suffusion-the-author]

[suffusion-the-author display='description']
 Posted by at 6:39 am

  2 Responses to “Is a cut-off low over the horizon?”

  1. It would be cool to test the Stu-T model on this blog.

  2. nogaps and gfsx are both beginning to challenge your hypothesis, stu, pushing most of the energy in this next system into the great basin.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

8 visitors online now
1 guests, 7 bots, 0 members
Max visitors today: 10 at 02:41 pm UTC
This month: 10 at 10-02-2017 01:31 pm UTC
This year: 86 at 03-09-2017 03:59 pm UTC
All time: 1611 at 04-27-2012 06:53 pm UTC