Nov 292010
 
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With the National Weather Service reporting 5.1 inches at the airport and 1.8 at Bellemont, we had a nice small storm. This morning, it appears that this pattern is forecasted to continue through the middle of next week, at least.

The NOGAPS model continues to miss any precipitation forecast for Northern Arizona, but has the trailing edge of low pressure systems glancing the region. The GFS and Ensemble forecasts have the trend continuing with a bit of a chance of precip this weekend, and more significant amounts over the horizon during next week.

I can almost guarantee a big storm between December 6 and 10. This based on the models and a different, personal, heuristic forecasting methodology. I will try to call it the Stu T-Model. The Stu T-Model was overwhelmingly correct last year. It predicted both the big December storm, a record breaking 24 hour snowfall amount. It predicted the MASSIVE January Storm. So, we will see.

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