The Navy NOGAPS forecast models don’t seem, to me anyway, to handle the monsoon season as well as others. So, I ignore them in the summer. But, I had a feeling the next storm patterns were different and more strongly resemble the winter storm pattern. Taking a look at the Navy NOGAPS precipitation model, it seems to agree.
This run of the model shows a shift from a monsoonal, thundershower pattern early in the model, to a frontal, pattern with a storm system moving down to Arizona from the Pacific Northwest. We’ll see if this holds. The GFS model disagrees. If it holds, we could see more precipitation in the middle of next week. Personally, I think NOGAPS does better than GFS in this time frame.