Tropical Storm Alex could provide a boost to the moisture flow to the southwest as it moves across Northern Mexico. It could also draw off that same moisture as it exits the Southwestern US to the north. Moisture has been building back in since the recent drying trend. The NWS has included about a 30% chance of thunderstorms to their forecast for the next few days. The thermal low that helps drive the monsoon has been developing as well.
As Alex moves to the west, it will bring moisture with it. The big question is what will happen to the moisture flow as it exits. Will the flow continue, or be disrupted? Right now, high pressure doesn’t appear to over Arizona and New Mexico when Alex exits. Hopefully, this will mean we keep the pump flowing. The exit of Alex to the north doesn’t happen until after Thursday, so it’s up in the air.
The good news is that it looks like we are done with the dry southwest flow and winds for a few days.